UK Economics Update Consumer recovery continues but foundations remain fragile Growth in household spending continues to drive the economic recovery. In the near-term, rising house prices and consumer credit should support further expansion. But a solid foundation of rising real... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are small retailers gaining at the expense of large ones? Although small retailers suffered much more than large ones during the economy’s post-2008 weakness, more recently, small retailers have started to outperform their larger competitors. But we doubt... 26th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Prospects bright for at least part of the household goods sector The recovery in the housing market has so far had little impact on total sales of household goods. But digging a little deeper, spending on items linked more closely with house purchases has risen... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Action on energy bills could provide modest consumer boost Attention on what has been termed the “cost of living crisis” has fuelled speculation that December’s Autumn Statement will include measures to cut energy bills. And even if funding of the ‘green’... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Underemployment will keep wage pressure subdued Underemployment, where people are in employment but want to work more hours, reached a record high in the first half of 2013. This means that there is more slack in the labour market than the... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Ageing population need not hit workforce growth too hard The ONS’ latest population projections suggest that the UK’s population will age even more rapidly than previously expected. But we doubt this will feed into a one-for-one fall in workforce growth and... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fall in gilt yields not a sign forward guidance is working The MPC should think twice before concluding that the fall in interest rate expectations and gilt yields in recent months is a sign that markets are coming around to its views on the economic outlook... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC probably united ahead of Inflation Report With the economic recovery proceeding more quickly than the MPC expected, but little pressure on forward guidance’s knockouts, today’s decision to leave policy unchanged was probably a unanimous one... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Could tourism dampen the consumer recovery? Some of the recent recovery in spending by UK households has been accounted for by spending abroad. So while the official household spending figures show growth, data for domestic spending are less... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Recent strong growth in certain measures of broad money suggests that the economic recovery has plenty of momentum at present. But the continued weakness of bank lending remains a reason to be... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Sep.) Despite the revival in the housing market and the role of consumer spending in driving the rebound in the economy, the economic recovery continues to remain a relatively creditless one. But this... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Inflation expectations pose little threat to guidance On close inspection, the recent rises in inflation expectations among households and in the gilt market appear to be nothing to worry about. The risk that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) abandons... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update End of income squeeze still in sight Given the latest round of utility price rises and a further slowdown in pay growth, it might seem that the squeeze on household incomes is never going to end. However, we remain optimistic that real... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal squeeze still dragging on spending, but not so badly Although real earnings are still being squeezed hard, one positive factor for households is that the pace of the Government's fiscal tightening is easing a bit ahead of 2015's general election. But... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update ILO unemployment won’t necessarily follow claimant count down The claimant count measure of unemployment has been falling more sharply than the wider ILO measure used by the MPC in its forward guidance on interest rates. While the claimant count is a timelier... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will 'Help to Buy' be a block to rebalancing? The Government's Help to Buy (HTB) Scheme has been criticised for stoking a potential house price bubble and exposing the taxpayer to unwarranted risks. A more overlooked danger arises from the... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
