UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Public Finances & Retail Sales (Jul. 2026)

July’s public finances figures continued the recent run of bad news on the fiscal position and highlight the limited scope for extra public borrowing. Meanwhile, the weakness in retail sales volumes...

21st August 2026 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Consumer Prices (Jul. 2026)

CPI inflation rose from 2.6% in June to 2.9% in July (consensus forecast 2.9%, BoE & CE 2.8%) and the lagged effect from high energy prices will probably lift it to around 3.5% later this year. But as...

19th August 2026 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Labour Market (Jun./Jul. 2026)

The further falls in PAYE employment and job vacancies in July show that the labour market continued to weaken. This supports our view that the labour market is not conducive of second-round inflation...

18th August 2026 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK GDP (Jun. & Q2 2026)

The 0.3% m/m rise in June and 0.4% q/q rise in Q2 (consensus & CE forecast 0.4%, BoE 0.3%) shows that the economy weathered the energy shock well in Q2. But with inflation yet to peak, we still think...

13th August 2026 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Bank of England Policy Announcement (30th Jul. 2026)

Even though the Bank of England continued to talk up the possibility of interest rate hikes while leaving rates at 3.75% today, we think rates are more likely to stay on hold this year and be cut to 3...

30th July 2026 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Lending (Jun. 2026)

June’s money and lending figures show that the near-term outlook for the housing market remains weak, households may be funding some of the decent spending in June by lowering their saving rate, and...

29th July 2026 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Flash PMIs (Jul. 2026)

July’s flash PMI figures show that the stagflationary pressures faced by the Bank of England continued to soften. But the recent rebound in energy prices suggests that all of these trends may not last...

24th July 2026 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Retail Sales (Jun. 2026)

June’s strong rise in retail sales volumes suggests that consumers kept on spending despite the rise in energy prices since the war in Iran began. This supports our view that the economy performed...

24th July 2026 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Consumer Prices (Jun. 2026)

The easing in CPI inflation from 2.8% in May to a 14-month low of 2.6% in June is unlikely to last long. The lagged effect from high energy prices will probably lift inflation above 3.0% in September...

22nd July 2026 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Public Finances & Labour Market (May/Jun. 2026)

June’s public finances were a rare piece of good news for the PM Burnham and Chancellor Healey, but with the UK’s debt burden still rising, there is limited scope for extra public borrowing. Meanwhile...

21st July 2026 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK GDP (May 2026)

The 0.1% m/m rise in real GDP in May is not a bad welcome gift for incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham as it suggests the economy may have grown by around 0.4% q/q in Q2. But with higher energy...

16th July 2026 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Lending (May 2026)

May’s money and lending data show that households continued to save a bit less to offset some of the hit to their real incomes and have delayed, or perhaps even cancelled, house purchases in response...

29th June 2026 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Flash PMIs (Jun. 2026)

June’s flash PMI figures show that the combination of weak activity and lower oil prices are constraining price rises. This lends a bit more support to our view that the Bank of England does not need...

23rd June 2026 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Prime Minister Resigns (22nd June 2026)

A change in leadership following Starmer’s resignation as Prime Minister may alter the size of the state. But it won’t change the fiscal realities. So while there may be talk of big spending increases...

22nd June 2026 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Public Finances & Retail Sales (May 2026)

Retail sales held up surprisingly well in May, but we doubt this resilience will last. Even if the US-Iran deal holds, inflation looks set to rise further (perhaps to about 4.0%) and retail sales will...

19th June 2026 · 3 mins read