UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Oct. 2026) The rise in the composite activity PMI in October to its highest level since the Iran war started suggests that activity, outside of the retail sector at least, is still pretty good. This will further... 23rd October 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence (Sep./Oct. 2026) October’s sharp fall in consumer confidence and the dip in retail sales volumes in September show that times are getting tougher for households just as the all-important festive period for retailers... 23rd October 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices & Public Finances (Sep. 2026) The rise in CPI inflation from 3.1% in August to 3.5% in September (consensus 3.4%, CE forecast 3.6%) mostly reflected higher fuel prices. There were also tentative signs that higher energy prices are... 21st October 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Aug./Sep. 2026) The unexpected fall in the unemployment rate in August suggests the labour market may be starting to recover, but the big picture is that hiring remains weak. With businesses’ energy costs likely to... 20th October 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Aug. 2026) The 0.1% m/m rise in real GDP in August built on two consecutive 0.4% m/m gains in the previous two months and continued the remarkable resilience of the economy to higher energy prices and borrowing... 15th October 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q2 2026 Final) The upward revision to real GDP growth in Q2, from 0.4% q/q to 0.5% q/q, suggests that the economy has been a bit more resilient to higher energy prices in the first half of the year than previously... 30th September 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Aug. 2026) It seems unlikely that households will continue to fund increases in their real spending by borrowing more and reducing their saving rates, as they did in August, for much longer. And the further fall... 29th September 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Sep. 2026) September’s flash PMIs suggest the resilience in activity may have faded a touch in Q3, but intensifying inflationary pressures will add to the Bank of England’s unease about the upside risks to... 23rd September 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Aug. 2026) The penultimate public finances release before the Budget on 28th October paints a dismal picture, with the government once again borrowing more than expected. This supports our view that a small or... 22nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Aug. 2026) The 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales volumes in August shows that the economy is still proving resilient to higher energy prices and borrowing costs. But we doubt this will last much longer. 18th September 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (17th Sep. 2026) For more detailed and up to date analysis, see here. The Bank of England left interest rates at 3.75% today and announced that it will reduce its holding of gilts by £368bn over the next eight years... 17th September 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Aug. 2026) We doubt that the combination of the rise in CPI inflation, from 2.9% in July to 3.1% in August and the leaps in energy prices in recent weeks are enough to prompt the Bank of England to hike interest... 16th September 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jul./Aug. 2026) The further weakening in labour activity in August lends some more support to our view that second-round inflation effects from higher energy prices will be muted. We still think there is a reasonable... 15th September 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jul. 2026) The strong 0.4% m/m rise in real GDP in July suggests that the resilience of the economy in the first half of the year continued into the second half, partly due to AI-related activity. But higher... 11th September 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Jul. 2026) July’s money and lending figures show that the near-term outlook for the housing market is weak, households may have funded some of their spending in July by lowering their saving rate and borrowing... 1st September 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Aug. 2026) August’s flash PMI figures suggest that the economy shrugged off the latest rebound in energy prices despite inflationary pressures staying elevated. We still think the Bank of England will hold its... 21st August 2026 · 3 mins read
