UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Mar. 2026) The surprisingly strong 0.7% m/m gain in retail sales volumes in March (CE forecast +0.5%, consensus +0.1%) meant that they rose by a chunky 1.6% q/q in Q1 overall. But April’s drop in consumer... 24th April 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Apr. 2026) April’s flash PMIs suggest that so far the economy is holding up better against the headwinds from the Iran war than in our baseline scenario, but that inflation will rise further. This may well lead... 23rd April 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Mar. 2026) March’s figures showed an unexpected undershoot of the OBR’s forecast for public borrowing in 2025/26. But we do not expect this improvement to last long. We think the energy price shock will mean... 23rd April 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Mar. 2026) The rise in CPI inflation from 3.0% in February to 3.3% in March (consensus and CE forecast 3.3%) was almost entirely due to higher fuel prices and tells us little about whether the leap in energy... 22nd April 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Feb./Mar. 2026) While the fall in the unemployment rate in February suggests the labour market was stabilising around the turn of the year, the decline in payroll employment in March suggests that the rise in energy... 21st April 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Feb. 2026) The surprisingly strong 0.5% m/m in February (consensus forecast 0.1%, Capital Economics 0.2%) and the upward revision to January GDP from 0.0% m/m to +0.1% m/m suggests the economy went into the... 16th April 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q4 2025 Final) The confirmation that real GDP grew by just 0.1% q/q in Q4 of last year is a reminder that the economic backdrop is much weaker now than the last time energy prices surged in 2022. 31st March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Feb. 2026) The subdued growth rates of the money supply ahead of the Iran war suggest the burst of inflation triggered by higher energy prices is more likely to be short-lived rather than long-lasting. 30th March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Feb. 2026) The modest fall in retail sales volumes in February meant that retail activity held onto most of its gains at the start of this year. But the decline in GfK consumer confidence in March due to the... 27th March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Feb. 2026) The economy entered the energy price shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East with CPI inflation stuck at 3.0%. And based on our current working assumptions about oil and gas prices, we now... 25th March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Mar. 2026) March’s flash PMIs show that the conflict in the Middle East is already going a long way to boosting inflation and extinguishing GDP growth. And this is just the start. 24th March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public finances (Feb. 2026) February’s public finances figures showed that the fiscal position was worse than expected even before the full impact of the surge in energy prices is felt. As a result, we doubt there is scope for a... 20th March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (19th Mar. 2026) While leaving interest rates at 3.75% today as widely expected, the Bank of England suggested it is more concerned about the upsides to inflation from the leap in energy prices triggered by the... 19th March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jan./Feb. 2026) While there were some green shoots of a recovery in payroll employment in February, today’s data release shows that the labour market was still weak before the new stagflation shock due to the events... 19th March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jan. 2026) With GDP not rising at all in January, it is clear the economy was subdued even before the leap in energy prices triggered by the Middle East conflict. We previously thought GDP growth would be 1.0%... 13th March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Chancellor’s Fiscal Statement (3rd Mar. 2026) For more detailed analysis see here. The Chancellor didn’t announce any major new policies in her fiscal statement and, on the face of it, has a bit more money to play with come the Budget in the... 3rd March 2026 · 3 mins read
