UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Apr. 2025) The fall in GDP in April supports our view that the strength of the economy in Q1 was a red herring and that GDP growth will be more subdued during the rest of the year. This won’t prompt the Bank of... 12th June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Apr./May 2025) With payrolls plunging, the unemployment rate climbing and wage growth easing, today’s labour market release leaves us more confident in our view that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from... 10th June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Apr. 2025) April’s money and lending figures provided little indication that the US trade war and the deteriorating jobs market prevented consumers’ willingness to borrow and spend from rising. This supports our... 2nd June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Apr. 2025) Although for the first time since 2015, excluding the pandemic, retail sales volumes have risen for four months in a row, April’s impressive 1.2% m/m rise was largely driven by the unusually warm... 23rd May 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (May 2025) Despite the modest rebound in the composite activity PMI in May, at face value it is consistent with the bumper 0.7% q/q rise in GDP in Q1 being followed by a 0.2% q/q fall in Q2. But signs of some... 22nd May 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Apr. 2025) April’s public finances figures showed that despite the boost from the rise in employers’ National Insurance Contributions (NICs), the fiscal year got off to a poor start. This raises the chances that... 22nd May 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Apr. 2025) The bigger-than-expected jump in CPI inflation in April suggests that the persistence of inflation is a bit stronger and/or businesses are passing on more of the recent rises in taxes than we thought... 21st May 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Mar. & Q1 2025) The bumper 0.7% q/q rise in GDP in Q1 is unlikely to be repeated as a lot of it was due to a leap in business investment that looks out of whack with the plunge in business confidence and some of it... 15th May 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Mar./Apr. 2025) The jobs market weakened further in the face of April’s rise in payroll taxes and the national minimum wage. But with wage growth still stuck in the 5.5-6.0% range and energy prices set to drive up... 13th May 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Announcement (8th May 2025) While cutting interest rates from 4.50% to 4.25% today, the Bank of England poured some cold water on the markets’ expectations that it is going to speed up the pace of rate cuts. As it happens, we no... 8th May 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Mar. 2025) March’s money and lending data suggest households were starting to spend more cautiously even before the full hit to consumer confidence from the heightened uncertainty caused by the new US tariffs... 1st May 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Mar. 2025) March’s rise in retail sales volumes meant sales rebounded by an impressive 1.6% q/q in Q1, rounding off a better-than-expected start to the year for the retail sector. That said, March’s rise was... 25th April 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Apr. 2025) The marked fall in the composite PMI in April raises the chances that the uncertainty stemming from the US tariffs chaos will be a bigger drag on the UK economy than we previously anticipated. That... 23rd April 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Mar. 2025) March’s public finances figures showed that public borrowing was overshooting the OBR’s forecast even before the influence from the tariff chaos is felt. This raises the chances that if the Chancellor... 23rd April 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Mar. 2025) The dip in CPI inflation from 2.8% in February to 2.6% in March won’t be sustained for long, with inflation set to rise to around 3.5% in the coming months. But we think a weak economy will quash... 16th April 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Feb. 2025) While the jobs market weakened further, there were few signs this is feeding through to slower wage growth. But if the more uncertain backdrop from the recent US tariffs chaos soon becomes a bigger... 15th April 2025 · 3 mins read
