UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q2 2025 Final & Blue Book Revisions) The small upward revisions to real GDP in recent years means that productivity growth wasn’t quite as weak as previously thought. The OBR will take these revisions into account ahead of the Budget on... 30th September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Aug. 2025) There is little evidence in August’s money and lending figures that concerns over further tax rises in the Budget on 26th November are having a big influence on households’ financial decisions as of... 29th September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Sep. 2025) September’s flash PMIs suggest that the downside risks around economic activity may be growing a bit and the upside risks to inflation may be fading, albeit only slowly. But with inflation likely to... 23rd September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances & Retail Sales (Aug. 2025) Today’s releases highlight the deteriorating nature of the public finances even though the economy hasn’t been terribly weak. We think this will contribute to the Chancellor having to raise around... 19th September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (18th Sep. 2025) For updated and more detailed analysis see here. While leaving interest rates at 4.00% today (as expected) and signalling that rates will still fall from here, the Bank of England reiterated its... 18th September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Aug. 2025) The recent upward march in CPI inflation paused for breath in August, with CPI inflation staying at 3.8%. Even so, as inflation will probably rise above 4.0% in September, the Bank of England won’t do... 17th September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jul./Aug. 2025) While the further, albeit modest, falls in payroll employment and our seasonally adjusted measure of single-month job vacancies in August suggest that the labour market continued to loosen gradually... 16th September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jul. 2025) The stagnation in real GDP in July shows that the economy is still struggling to gain decent momentum in the face of the drag from previous hikes in taxes and possible further tax rises to come in the... 12th September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales & Halifax House Prices (Jul./Aug. 2025) The rises in retail sales volumes in July and the Halifax measure of house prices in August suggest the economy maintained some decent momentum early in Q3. The risk is talk of tax rises ahead of the... 5th September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Jul. 2025) July’s money and lending data show that interest rate cuts are yet to significantly boost economic activity and that the prospect of tax hikes in the Autumn Budget may be making households a bit more... 1st September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Aug. 2025) The rises in August’s composite activity PMI and services output prices balances marginally increase the chances that the Bank of England will leave interest rates on hold at 4.00% in November. 21st August 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jul. 2025) July’s undershoot in government borrowing continued the decent start to the fiscal year and leaves borrowing broadly in line with the Office for Budget Responsibility’s 2025/26 fiscal year forecast of... 21st August 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jul. 2025) While the rise in CPI inflation from 3.6% in June to 3.8% (consensus and Capital Economics forecast 3.7%) will fuel speculation that further interest rate cuts are off the agenda this year, the Bank... 20th August 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jun. & Q2 2025) The unexpectedly strong 0.4% m/m rise in GDP in June (consensus and CE forecast 0.1%) and 0.3% q/q gain in Q2 are more likely to be due to a temporary burst of growth rather than a sign of a... 14th August 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jun./Jul. 2025) The further falls in payroll employment and job vacancies suggest that the labour market is still cooling, albeit only gradually. But with wage growth excluding bonuses stuck at 5.0%, on balance today... 12th August 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (7th Aug. 2025) Although the Bank of England cut interest rates today by 25 basis points (bps), from 4.25% to 4.00%, it showed some signs that it may cut rates slower and/or not as far as our forecast of a decline to... 7th August 2025 · 3 mins read
