UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Apr. 2024) The 2.3% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in April was much bigger than our forecast for a 0.5% m/m fall and the consensus forecast for a 0.4% m/m decline as the unusually wet weather discouraging... 24th May 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (May 2024) Today’s May flash PMI survey will have provided the Bank of England with some comfort after yesterday’s stronger-than-expected inflation data for April. Crucially, the further fall in the services... 23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Apr. 2024) April’s public finances figures got the new 2024/25 fiscal year off to a shaky start and cast further doubt on the Chancellor’s ability to unveil big tax cuts at another pre-election fiscal event... 22nd May 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024) In response to the smaller-than-expected fall in CPI inflation in April, we now think that the Bank of England will first cut interest rates in August rather than in June. And the data cast some doubt... 22nd May 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Mar. 2024) While the further easing in regular private sector pay growth in March suggests that wage pressures faded a bit faster than the Bank of England expected, broader measures of wage growth are probably... 14th May 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Mar. & Q1 2024) The 0.6% q/q rise in GDP in Q1 confirmed that the recession ended at the start of this year and suggests the economy has been gathering momentum more quickly than we had anticipated. This raises the... 10th May 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (May 2024) While leaving interest rates at 5.25% today as widely expected, the Bank of England gave the impression that it is close to cutting interest rates and also hinted that rates may need to fall further... 9th May 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Mar. 2024) March’s money and credit figures provide further evidence that the drag from high interest rates is starting to fade, which supports our view that activity rebounded in Q1. And our forecast for... 30th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Apr. 2024) Although the unexpected rise in the composite activity PMI in April suggests the economy grew faster at the start of Q2, the more marked fall in the services output prices balance may make the Bank of... 23rd April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Mar. 2024) March’s public finances figures show that public borrowing in 2023/24 came in £6.6bn higher than the OBR predicted only a month ago, casting further doubt on the ability of the government to unveil... 23rd April 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Mar. 2024) Although retail sales volumes remaining unchanged in March was worse than expected (consensus forecast +0.3% m/m, CE +0.5 % m/m), sales volumes still rose by 1.9% q/q in Q1 as a whole, bringing the... 19th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Mar. 2024) The smaller-than-expected fall in CPI inflation from 3.4% in February to 3.2% in March (BoE and consensus 3.1%, CE 3.0%) and drop in the core rate from 4.5% to 4.2% (consensus and CE 4.1%) raises the... 17th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Feb. 2024) The sharp fall in employment and the jump in the unemployment rate in February suggest that wage growth will continue to slow even though the pace of decline appears to have eased. As long as that’s... 16th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Bernanke Review of BoE Forecasting (Apr. 2024) Our initial impression of the changes to the Bank of England’s forecasting and communications recommended by Ben Bernanke is that they would go a long way to helping the Bank generate more accurate... 12th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Feb. 2024) The 0.1% m/m rise in GDP in February (consensus and CE +0.1%) and the upward revision to the gain in January from 0.2% m/m to 0.3% m/m all-but confirms the recession ended in Q4. But while we expect a... 12th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Feb. 2024) February’s money and credit figures show the dip in mortgage rates at the start of the year boosted mortgage approvals to a 17-month high. This is unlikely to continue in the near term. But if we’re... 2nd April 2024 · 3 mins read
