UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Jun. 2025) June’s money and lending figures support wider evidence that the deteriorating jobs market has led to a rise in consumer caution as households have become a bit more cautious about spending. This... 29th July 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Jun. 2025) The disappointingly small rebound in retail sales in June supports our view that the economy grew by only 0.1% q/q in Q2 and means that the risks to our forecast for consumer spending to grow by 1.4%... 25th July 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Jul. 2025) July’s flash PMIs paint a picture of the economy struggling to recover from a spring lull, a labour market that is still weakening and price pressures that are continuing to ease. This should reassure... 24th July 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jun. 2025) Despite the £3.6bn overshoot in June, public borrowing is still in line with the OBR’s forecasts for the first three months of the 2025/26 fiscal year. But things will probably get worse for the... 22nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (May/Jun. 2025) The fallout in the labour market from the hikes in National Insurance Contributions and the minimum wage is not as big as previously thought. Even so, as payroll employment is falling and wage growth... 17th July 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jun. 2025) The unexpected rise in CPI inflation from 3.4% in May to a 17-month high of 3.6% in June (consensus & BoE forecast 3.4%, CE 3.3%) may not prevent the Bank of England from cutting interest rates by 25... 16th July 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (May 2025) The hangover from the burst of activity in Q1 ahead of rises in US tariffs and UK stamp charges continued in May with GDP falling by 0.1% m/m. This leaves GDP on track to rise by just 0.1% q/q in Q2... 11th July 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (May 2025) Today’s money and lending data release supports wider evidence that activity was relatively soft in May. But with consumer confidence improving and real wages rising at a healthy clip, we still think... 30th June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q1 2025 Final) GDP growth was unrevised at 0.7% q/q in Q1, but we already know this strength has started to unwind. The underlying picture is still that there is very little momentum in the economy. 30th June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Jun. 2025) June’s composite PMI is consistent with GDP doing little more than flatlining in Q2, the Bank of England will be reassured that the recent cooling in the labour market finally appears to be weighing... 23rd June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (May 2025) Despite the overshoot in May, public borrowing was £2.9bn below the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast in the first two months of the fiscal year. That said, the OBR may still revise up its... 20th June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (May 2025) The sharp 2.7% m/m drop back in retail sales volumes in May adds to other evidence that the burst of economic growth in Q1 is over. That said, consumer spending may still outperform other areas of the... 20th June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (19th Jun. 2025) The Bank of England sounded a bit more dovish while leaving interest rates at 4.25% today, despite the extra upside risks to inflation from events in the Middle East. This supports our view that the... 19th June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (May 2025) With services inflation still elevated at 4.7%, the small fall in CPI inflation from 3.5% in April to 3.4% in May (CE 3.2%, consensus 3.4%) won’t prompt the Bank of England to deviate from its recent... 18th June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Apr. 2025) The fall in GDP in April supports our view that the strength of the economy in Q1 was a red herring and that GDP growth will be more subdued during the rest of the year. This won’t prompt the Bank of... 12th June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Apr./May 2025) With payrolls plunging, the unemployment rate climbing and wage growth easing, today’s labour market release leaves us more confident in our view that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from... 10th June 2025 · 3 mins read
