UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Retail Sales (Aug. 2024)

The unexpected large rise in retail sales volumes in August came on the back of a 0.7% m/m increase in July (revised up from 0.5% m/m) and lends some support to our view that the recent stagnation in...

20th September 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Bank of England Policy Announcement (19 Sep. 2024)

By leaving interest rates at 5.00% the Bank of England showed it is more like the ECB than the Fed and is cutting interest rates gradually rather than rapidly. We expect only one further 25bps cut...

19th September 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Consumer Prices (Aug. 2024)

CPI inflation stayed at 2.2% in August (consensus & CE 2.2%, BoE 2.4%), but the rise in services inflation from 5.2% to 5.6% suggests the Bank of England will probably press the pause button on...

18th September 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK GDP (Jul. 2024)

The economy stagnated in July, but that doesn’t mean the UK is on the cusp of another recession and we still think the stickiness of inflation will keep the Bank on hold in September.

11th September 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Labour Market (Jul. 2024)

The further easing in wage growth will be welcomed by the Bank of England as a sign that labour market conditions are continuing to cool. But we doubt this will be enough to prompt a back-to-back 25...

10th September 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Lending (Jul. 2024)

July’s money and lending data provide further evidence that a steady improvement in the flow and demand of credit is supporting the economic recovery. That said, credit growth is unlikely to...

30th August 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Aug. 2024)

August’s composite PMI provides further evidence that some of the recent strength of activity in the first half of this year may have been due to catch-up growth following the mild recession in the...

22nd August 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Public Finances (Jul. 2024)

July’s public finances figures continued the recent run of bad news on the fiscal position, with public borrowing on track to overshoot the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) 2024/25 forecast of...

21st August 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Retail Sales (Jul. 2024)

After a weather disrupted Q2, July’s 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales volumes (consensus forecast 0.6% m/m, CE forecast 0.5% m/m) was largely driven by two sectors and only partially reversed June’s 0.9%...

16th August 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK GDP (Jun. & Q2 2024)

While the economy flatlined in June, it still managed to grow by 0.6% q/q rise in GDP in Q2. That said, some of the rebound in activity in Q2 may have been due to catch-up growth following the...

15th August 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Consumer Prices (Jul. 2024)

The smaller-than-expected rise in CPI inflation from 2.0% in June to 2.2% in July (consensus forecast 2.3%, Capital Economics 2.1%, Bank of England 2.4%) and the sharp fall in services inflation from...

14th August 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Labour Market (Jun. 2024)

The further easing in wage growth will be welcomed by the Bank of England as a sign that labour market conditions are continuing to cool. This lends some support to our forecast that the Bank of...

13th August 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Bank of England Policy Announcement (1st Aug. 2024)

1st August 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Lending (Jun. 2024)

June’s money and lending data provided a bit more evidence that the drag from higher activity is starting to fade, which supports our view that the economic recovery may be a bit stronger than most...

29th July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jul. 2024)

July’s composite PMI suggests some of the recent rebound in activity this year may have been due to catch-up growth following the weakness of activity last year and GDP growth is easing towards a more...

24th July 2024 · 3 mins read