Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s new government, Dubai’s loan rollover The formation of a new government in Lebanon has raised investors’ hopes that the dire public finances will be put on a stable footing. But we think that these will be disappointed, causing the recent... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s pound to lose ground, Saudi anti-corruption drive The appreciation of the Egyptian pound this week appears to have been driven by a spurt of foreign portfolio inflows, but we still think that the currency will record a modest fall in the next couple... 31st January 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian pound to weaken, Gulf support for Lebanon Comments from the Central Bank of Egypt’s governor, Tarek Amer, earlier this week add weight to our view that the authorities will scale back support for the pound. This is likely to result in a... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi equities rally, strikes in Tunisia, Lebanese debt Saudi Arabia’s stock market has rallied over the past week or so, but we expect this to go into reverse. Meanwhile, public sector strikes taking place in Tunisia today highlight the scale of the... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanese debt restructuring, Saudi’s dollar bond sale Reports that Lebanon’s government is putting together a debt restructuring plan suggest that some of the risks we’ve previously warned about are crystallising. And there’s a good chance that this... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Regional growth to slow in 2019, Egypt rate cuts The raft of GDP figures released over the past week showed that, in aggregate, the MENA economies strengthened in Q3 of last year. But we think that a fresh slowdown is on the cards in 2019. Meanwhile... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi’s optimistic oil price forecasts, Morocco’s IMF deal Saudi Arabia’s 2019 budget was premised on optimistic assumptions regarding oil prices that are likely to be disappointed. If we’re right, fiscal austerity will probably return in mid-2019 and there’s... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC cuts, Qatari Emir shuns GCC, Oman dollar bonds The OPEC meeting concluded last Friday with a deal to cut oil output but we don’t think that this will provide a lasting boost to oil prices and, overall, the deal is set to result in slower GDP... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC meets, Egypt’s exchange rate policy OPEC’s biannual meeting kicked off today and all the signs are that the cartel will agree to an output cut by the time the meeting concludes tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Egyptian authorities have taken... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil slump and output cuts, Egypt’s IMF deal The recent slump in oil prices is unlikely to cause major economic ructions in the Gulf, although it does look like policymakers will push ahead with an oil output cut at next week’s OPEC meeting... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Congress goes after MbS, but further sanctions unlikely President Trump’s statement this week supporting US ties with Saudi Arabia suggests that attempts by Congress to force a firmer response to the murder of Jamal Khashoggi are unlikely to result in... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil slumps, more political twists in Tunisia and Lebanon The drop in oil prices over the past week probably has further to run, which is a key reason why we think that the economic recovery in the Gulf will peak in the middle of 2019 and perhaps even sooner... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC to talk output cuts, Tunisia rates, Egypt’s wage bill Rumours suggest that OPEC will discuss the possibility of oil output cuts this weekend, although a decision seems highly unlikely at this stage. But if oil prices fall further, as we expect... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi loosens fiscal policy, Tunisia reforms face delay Data released this week confirmed that higher oil prices have prompted Saudi Arabia’s government to loosen fiscal policy further and we expect this to continue over the next few quarters, boosting... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi markets not out of the woods, oil prices drop The rally in Saudi Arabia’s stock market today has partially reversed the losses suffered since Jamal Khashoggi’s disappearance hit the headlines. But the threat of sanctions, coupled with falling oil... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Khashoggi scandal, Saudi fiscal slippage, Egypt tourism Saudi Arabia might be patching together a face-saving statement over the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khasoggi, but the affair will damage the country’s long-term economic prospects and another... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
