Lebanon crisis, OPEC+ meeting, Aramco IPO

Lebanese banks will make some interest payments on FX deposits in local currency, which adds to the evidence that strains in the balance of payments are worsening. The risk of a debt restructuring and devaluation is rising by the day. Meanwhile, we think OPEC+ will probably agree to roll over current quotas at this week’s meeting, which will cause oil sectors to continue to weigh on GDP growth in the Gulf. Finally, the Aramco IPO looks set to be the largest on record, but the funds raised are still likely to fall shy of the government’s desires.