Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s new (and Tunisia’s lack of) government Lebanon’s prime minister finally managed to form a new government this week and policymakers are quickly facing up to reality of the economy’s woes. A steep devaluation and a debt restructuring are on... 23rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s debt swap, Egypt’s pound, Kuwait’s budget The unravelling this week of a proposed debt swap by the Lebanese authorities suggests that, even once a government is formed, debt restructuring will be a drawn-out process. Elsewhere, the Egyptian... 16th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran tensions, Egyptian inflation jumps The immediate threat of direct conflict between the US and Iran has diminished over the past day or so, supporting a rally in local and global financial markets. But the threat has not disappeared and... 9th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi economy contracts, Sultan Qaboos’ health scare Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted in Q3 of last year and the latest evidence suggests that Q4 was even worse. While a recovery will probably take hold this year, we think that it will be weaker than... 2nd January 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tight fiscal policy in the Gulf, Saudi labour market We think that the recent rise in oil prices has further to run over the next twelve months, but this is unlikely to pave the way for fiscal loosening in the Gulf. Meanwhile, data released this week... 19th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco IPO, Saudi growth, Algeria’s election Aramco shares surged after the long-awaited IPO this week, and it looks like some of the proceeds from the sale may be spent by the Saudi sovereign wealth fund to offset the hit from the fiscal... 12th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon crisis, OPEC+ meeting, Aramco IPO Lebanese banks will make some interest payments on FX deposits in local currency, which adds to the evidence that strains in the balance of payments are worsening. The risk of a debt restructuring and... 5th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s central bank governor, Lebanese debt, Saudi tax The appointment of Egypt’s central bank governor, Tarek Amer, for a second four-year term will welcomed by investors as a sign that the government remains committed to orthodox policymaking and... 28th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon crisis, Moroccan growth, UAE insolvency law Lebanon’s government should meet an FX debt repayment next week, but this will further drain the country’s FX reserves and pile further pressure on the dollar peg. Elsewhere, Morocco’s king appointed... 21st November 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s woes, Qatar blockade, Kuwaiti infighting The situation in Lebanon is going from bad to worse and the chances of a combined debt, currency and banking crisis are rising. President Aoun seems to be seeking a bailout package but this would only... 14th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco IPO, Saudi fiscal policy, Lebanese banks A few more details of the Aramco IPO have trickled out in the last few days and we now know that 2% of the firm will be listed on the Tadawul on 11th December. The funds from the IPO wouldn’t be quite... 7th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s turmoil, Dubai’s property woes, Aramco IPO Continuing protests and the resignation of PM Saad Hariri have taken Lebanon closer to the brink and a sovereign debt structuring is looking inevitable. Bond spreads are likely to widen further... 31st October 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ output cuts, UK-Egypt flights, Lebanon protests Rumours that OPEC+ oil producers are contemplating deeper output cuts underlines the desire of policymakers in Saudi Arabia to push up oil prices. But this would come at the expense of weaker GDP... 24th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s IMF talks, Saudi stocks drop, Tunisia elections Reports that Egypt and the IMF are in negotiations over some kind of future cooperation suggests that the authorities are trying to soothe investor fears of fiscal loosening. But the absence of... 17th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisian election, pressure builds in Egypt for stimulus Tunisians will vote for their new president on Sunday with Kais Saied, an independent, facing off against Nabil Karoui, a recently-incarcerated media mogul. Whoever the next president is will face the... 10th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Gulf recession fears, Lebanese pound under pressure National accounts figures released this week showed that Saudi Arabia’s economy officially entered recession in Q2 and Qatar’s economy shrunk too, all of which supports our below-consensus 2019 GDP... 3rd October 2019 · 6 mins read
