Saudi oil output, vaccine rollout, Qatar un-blockaded

Saudi Arabia’s surprise voluntary oil output cut unveiled at this week’s OPEC+ meeting has lifted oil prices, but will mean that GDP growth will probably be weaker in Q1 than we had previously expected. Meanwhile, governments in the Gulf have begun rolling out COVID-19 vaccines, providing hope that economic recoveries will soon gather pace. In contrast, other parts of the region are likely to struggle with distribution and recoveries will be slower. Finally, we don’t think the end of the blockade on Qatar significantly improves the country’s near-term economic outlook.