Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanese budget falls short, more slippage from Bahrain The negative market reaction to Lebanon’s 2019 budget suggests that investors are coming round to our view that the government will need to pursue debt restructuring in the coming years. Fiscal woes... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s subsidy cuts, OPEC+ to renew output deal Electricity price hikes announced in Egypt this week are actually less aggressive than last year’s, but this will shave only a small amount off headline inflation. And with fuel price increases still... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran tensions hit markets, Tunisia’s external risks mount Mounting friction between the US and Iran has dominated the news flow this week and weighed on financial markets across the MENA region. Investors seem to be most concerned that Lebanon will get... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Bahrain’s fiscal woes, Tadawul falls, PMIs positive Developments in Bahrain over the past week suggest that the government is backtracking on its commitment to fiscal austerity. We doubt that the other Gulf countries will withdraw their support but, if... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi equity rally to fade, mixed news for Morocco Saudi equities have continued to rally this week, but we think that they will erase all of their recent gains by the end of this year. Meanwhile, projections from Morocco’s agriculture ministry... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output, Egypt’s constitutional referendum US President Trump’s decision not to extend waivers on Iran’s oil exports means that Saudi Arabia is likely to raise oil production over the coming months. While this poses an upside risk to our GDP... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian competitiveness, Lebanon’s budget The Egyptian government’s decision this week to impose import tariffs on steel rebars and iron pellets highlights the government’s slippage on structural reforms and also suggests that the pound may... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco’s bond sale, Saudi risk premium Aramco’s bumper bond sale this week was seen by many as a vote of confidence in the Saudi economy and the government’s reform plans. But other indicators don’t back this up. 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Strong growth won’t last, oil prices, Aramco’s finances The raft of Q4 GDP data released this week showed that the region recorded its fastest growth in three years at the end of 2018. But a slowdown is now underway and is likely to intensify. Meanwhile... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Twist in Algeria, Aramco-SABIC deal, Egypt’s draft budget The latest attempt to quell protests in Algeria doesn’t appear to have worked and there’s a risk that the demonstrations become more disruptive and the chances of a messy political transition are... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi projects, jitters over Lebanon, Egypt’s gas revival Plans announced this week for a wave of megaprojects in Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh, add to the impression that the government is diverting its attention away from the bold reforms needed to... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE’s property slump, Oman’s need for a bailout Talk of banks in the UAE needing to lengthen the maturity of real estate loans may be the first sign that the country’s property slump is starting to cause fresh debt problems. Elsewhere, Oman may not... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi bank tax, Oman gets junk status, Algeria protests Reports that the Saudi government is considering hiking taxes on banks supports our view that low oil prices will eventually prompt a return to fiscal austerity. Meanwhile, Moody’s decision to strip... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi to extend output cuts, more protests in Algeria Fresh hints from Saudi Arabia that it will extend its oil production cuts into the second half of this year support our view that economic growth in the Kingdom will be weaker than most anticipate... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Further rate hikes likely in Tunisia, the Qatar blockade The Tunisian central bank hiked its key policy rate aggressively this week and we think that further steps will be needed to correct the country’s large economic imbalances. Meanwhile, the UAE has... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output cuts and expat fees, Egypt inflation Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister that oil production will be reduced to well below its OPEC quota suggests that the authorities are focused on driving oil prices higher in order to prevent a... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
