Aramco IPO, Saudi growth, Algeria’s election

Aramco shares surged after the long-awaited IPO this week, and it looks like some of the proceeds from the sale may be spent by the Saudi sovereign wealth fund to offset the hit from the fiscal austerity unveiled in the recent 2020 budget. Even so, with austerity kicking in and oil output set to be lower, we have revised down our forecast for Saudi GDP growth next year to 1.3%. Elsewhere, Algeria’s presidential election won’t mark a turning point for economic policy, and the risk of a balance of payments crisis is building.