Latin America Rapid Response

Chile GDP (Q2 2024)

The 0.6% q/q fall in Chilean GDP in Q2 is mainly payback for a strong Q1, and we expect a return to positive growth in Q3. Still, the Q2 figures should the central bank confidence to deliver a couple...

19th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Colombia GDP (Q2 2024)

The Colombian economy isn’t nearly as weak as the meagre 0.1% q/q rise in headline GDP in Q2 would suggest; there was a large drag from net trade while domestic demand remained very strong. The strong...

15th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (Jul. 2024)

The rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 4.5% y/y in July was mainly driven by a pick-up in underlying core services inflation which will do little to quell the hawkishness of Copom. But, with...

9th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.)

Mexico’s central bank opted to reduce its policy rate by 25bp, to 10.75%, at today’s meeting and the statement generally retained the moderately dovish tone from the last one. We think further rate...

8th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul. 2024)

The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 5.6% y/y in July, alongside the weakness in the peso means that Banxico’s interest rate decision later today will be a very close call between a cut...

8th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2024)

Rising inflation, a worsening fiscal position and a slump in the real prompted Brazil’s central bank to leave the Selic rate at 10.50% today and strike a more hawkish tone in the accompanying...

31st July 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico GDP (Q2 Provisional)

The weaker-than-expected 0.2% q/q expansion in Mexico’s economy in Q2 means that Banxico is likely to resume its easing cycle at next week’s Board meeting with a 25bp cut to 10.75%.

30th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (Jul. 2024)

The stronger-than-expected rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate, 4.45% y/y in the first half of July, was mainly driven by a pick-up in underlying core services inflation. This, coming alongside...

25th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul. 2024)

The larger-than-expected rise in Mexican inflation in the first half of July, to 5.6% y/y, was driven entirely by a jump in non-core inflation; core inflation fell. Our base case remains that Banxico...

24th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (Jun. 2024)

The rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 4.2% y/y in June was a little softer than expected but the recent weakness in the real and mounting fiscal concerns means that there is no chance that...

10th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024)

The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 5.0% y/y in June, was mainly due to a surge in agricultural inflation; core inflation edged down last month. While there’s still a...

9th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Chile Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024)

The fourth consecutive increase in Chilean inflation, to 4.2% y/y, in June means that interest rates are likely to be left unchanged at 5.75% at the central bank’s meeting at the end of the month. We...

8th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.)

Mexico’s central bank left rates unchanged at 11.00% today, but there was a surprising dovish shift in the Board’s communications – despite the post-election fall in the peso. A small reduction in the...

27th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (June 2024)

The slightly lower-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure, of 4.1% y/y, for the first half of June won’t change the picture that the central bank’s easing cycle is over – for this year at least.

26th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jun. 2024)

The continued strength in core services inflation in Mexico in the first half of June, combined with the post-election slump in the peso and heightened political uncertainty, means that Banxico is...

24th June 2024 · 2 mins read