US Rapid Response Trump gives one-month reprieve on Canada & Mexico auto tariffs President Donald Trump's decision to grant a one-month exemption to the Big Three Automakers (Ford, GM & Stellantis) is something of a disappointment given the earlier heavy hints from his Commerce... 5th March 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb. 2025) The jump in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 5.0% y/y in the first half of February means Copom will almost certainly press ahead with another 100bp hike in the Selic rate to, 14.25%, at its March... 25th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Feb. 2025) The fall in core inflation in Mexico in the first half of February combined with weak economic activity, means that Banxico is likely to press ahead with another 50bp cut at its meeting next month. 24th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response US-Russia talks don’t signal near-term end to the war The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the... 18th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Jan. 2025) The fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate in January, to 4.6% y/y, was mainly due a drop in housing inflation and is unlikely to prevent the central bank from delivering another 100bp hike to the... 11th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Is Argentina's economy back? And what just happened in Turkey? 19th March 2025, 3:00PM GMT Argentina's President Javier Milei has made impressive progress in turning the economy around, but the key question now is whether these achievements can be sustained.
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) Mexico’s central bank stepped up the pace of monetary easing to 50bp at today’s meeting, lowering the policy rate to 9.50%, and the overall communications were dovish. While a tariff-induced drop in... 6th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q4 2024 Provisional) The much larger-than-expected 0.6% q/q drop in Mexico’s GDP in Q4 is likely to strengthen the argument for a 50bp interest rate cut, to 9.50%, at next week’s Banxico meeting. That now looks like the... 30th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) Brazil’s central bank delivered on its pledge to deliver another 100bp hike to the Selic rate, to 13.25%, and another 100bp increase at March’s Copom meeting is all but certain. For now, we are... 29th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan. 2025) Brazil’s headline inflation rate eased to 4.5% y/y in the first half of January, but signs that underlying price pressures continued to build mean that Copom will press ahead with another 100bp hike... 24th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan. 2025) The fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of January, to 3.8% y/y, means that Banxico is likely to continue its easing cycle next month. But with the Fed set to pause its pause its cutting cycle... 23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Dec. 2024) The fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate in December, to 4.8% y/y, coupled with the rebound in the real over the past couple of weeks, won’t be enough to stop Copom following through with further... 10th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec. 2024) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 4.2% y/y in December keeps the door open for another 25bp cut at Banxico’s February meeting. But a lot will hinge on moves on the... 9th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Dec. 2024) The fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of December, to 4.4% y/y, gives Banxico room to continue to ease monetary policy. But we expect Banxico to continue to cut in 25bp steps, rather than... 23rd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) Mexico’s central bank unanimously decided to deliver another 25bp interest rate cut, to 10.00%, at today’s meeting and the statement flagged that the easing cycle will continue in the coming months... 19th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) Brazil’s central bank stepped up the pace of tightening with a larger-than-expected 100bp hike, to 12.25%, to the Selic rate and made clear that there will be at least two more 100bp increases, to 14... 11th December 2024 · 2 mins read
