Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jun. 2025) The fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 5.3% y/y in the first half of June reinforces our view that the central bank won’t push through further interest rate hikes. An easing cycle is likely... 26th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jun 2025) The jump in Mexican inflation to 4.5% in the middle of this month won’t be enough to prevent Banxico from proceeding with a (clearly-signalled) 50bp interest rate cut at its meeting later this week... 24th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Jun. 2025) Brazil’s central bank opted, as we had expected, for a 25bp hike in the Selic today to 15.00% and, while the tightening cycle is probably now over, Copom went out of its way to push back against any... 18th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (May 2025) The slightly larger-than-expected fall in Brazil’s headline inflation, to 5.3% y/y, was driven by weaker food inflation. Underlying price pressures continued to strengthen and, against that backdrop... 10th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May 2025) Mexico’s headline inflation rate jumped to 4.4% y/y in May but this was mainly driven by stronger non-core prices and so is unlikely to trouble officials at the central bank. Indeed, with the economy... 9th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q1 2025) The 1.4% q/q expansion in Brazil’s GDP was partly driven by a boom in the agricultural sector at the start of the year, which is likely to unwind. But it now looks like the economy is on course to... 30th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (May 2025) The fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 5.4% y/y in the first half of May means that the risks to our forecast for a final hike in June are skewed to the downside. But if the Q1 GDP data due... 27th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May 2025) The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate in the first half of May, to 4.2% y/y, was driven in large part by non-core components and is unlikely to sway Banxico’s thinking... 22nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q1 2025) The stronger-than-expected 0.7% q/q expansion in Chile’s economy in Q1 on the back of robust domestic demand supports our view that Chile’s central bank will leave its policy rate on hold for a bit... 19th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (May 2025) Brazil’s central bank hiked the Selic rate by a further 50bp, to 14.75%, today and officials made clear in the accompanying statement that the tightening cycle is near an end. We are sticking with our... 7th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q1 Provisional) The 0.2% q/q expansion in Mexico’s GDP means that the economy dodged a technical recession last quarter. But growth was driven by a rebound in agriculture and the rest of the economy – and the... 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Apr. 2025) The further rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 5.5% y/y in the first half of April means that Copom will press ahead with a 50bp hike in the Selic rate at its next meeting in early May. But... 25th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr.) The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate in the first half of April, to 4.0% y/y, is unlikely to shift Banxico’s focus away from the weakness of the economy and we expect it to deliver another... 24th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Mar. 2025) The jump in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 5.5% y/y in March looks set to be followed by further increases towards 6% y/y over the coming months. Copom will almost certainly deliver a bit more... 11th April 2025 · 2 mins read
