Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan.)

The jump in Mexico’s inflation to a higher-than-expected 4.9% y/y in the first half of January was entirely due to a particularly sharp rise in agricultural goods inflation. But it probably means the...

24th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (December 2023)

The renewed fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate in December, to 4.6% y/y, paves the way for another 50bp cut to the Selic rate (to 11.25%) at the central bank’s next meeting at the end of the...

11th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.)

The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.7% y/y in December was mainly due to higher non-core inflation but, even so, the odds of Banxico beginning an easing cycle at its...

9th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

Mexico’s central bank left interest rates unchanged at 11.25% again today and there was no further tilt away from the hawkish bias in the accompanying statement. The likelihood that Banxico will begin...

14th December 2023 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Dec. 2023)

The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s decision to lower the Selic rate by 50bp, to 11.75%, was slightly more dovish than the last one from November. But not enough has changed to...

13th December 2023 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (November 2023)

The small fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate in November, to 4.7% y/y, makes another 50bp interest rate cut (to 11.75%) at tomorrow’s central bank meeting a certainty. But with inflation still...

12th December 2023 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (Nov.)

Although Mexico’s headline inflation rate was weaker than expected last month (at 4.3% y/y), uncomfortably strong services inflation supports our view that Banxico’s easing cycle (likely to start...

7th December 2023 · 3 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil GDP (Q3 2023)

Brazil’s economy fared better than expected in Q3, expanding by 0.1% q/q, but the bigger picture is that the strong growth seen in the first half of the year has come to an end.

5th December 2023 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil Industrial Production (October 2023)

The meagre 0.1% m/m expansion in Brazil’s industrial production in October adds to the signs that, after a very strong first half of the year, the economy has slowed sharply. This is likely to...

1st December 2023 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (November 2023)

The decline in inflation in Brazil to 4.8% y/y in the middle of November means that – barring a major surprise in the full-month outturn – the central bank is on course to lower the Selic rate by...

28th November 2023 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov.)

Mexico’s mid-month inflation reading of 4.3% y/y in November provides signs that the disinflation process is running out of steam. And while Banxico opened the door to the start of a monetary easing...

23rd November 2023 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Chile GDP (Q3 2023)

The 0.3% q/q expansion in Chile’s GDP in Q3 suggests that the recovery is beginning to take hold. We continue to expect above-consensus GDP growth in 2024-25.

20th November 2023 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Colombia GDP (Q3 2023)

The softer-than-expected 0.2% q/q rise in Colombian GDP in Q3, coming alongside signs that the economy was weakening towards the end of the quarter, suggests that growth over the year as a whole will...

15th November 2023 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (October 2023)

The fall in Brazilian inflation to 4.8% y/y in October confirms that the mini inflation cycle has now topped out. Inflation will continue to fall in the coming months, paving the way for further...

10th November 2023 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

Mexico’s central bank sprung no surprises and left its policy rate at 11.25% at today’s Board meeting and the accompanying statement retained its hawkish bias. That said, there was a very modest hint...

9th November 2023 · 2 mins read