Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico GDP (Q2 Provisional)

The stronger-than-expected 0.7% q/q expansion in Mexico’s GDP suggests that the economy is weathering the tariff storm surprisingly well. While we don’t think this marks the start to a sustained pick...

30th July 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (Jul. 2025)

The stable Brazilian mid-month inflation reading for July (of 5.3% y/y), signs that underlying core inflation is easing, and the resilience of the real all but confirm that Copom won’t hike rates...

25th July 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul 2025)

The drop in Mexican inflation to 3.5% y/y in the first half of July means that Banxico is all but certain to deliver the clearly-signalled 25bp cut next month. It also lends support to our below...

24th July 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (June 2025)

There’s little in the Brazilian June CPI print that changes our view that last month’s hike marked the end to Copom’s tightening cycle. But a lot will now depend on how the trade dispute with the US...

10th July 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun. 2025)

The fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 4.3% y/y in June gives Banxico room to continue its easing cycle in the coming months. But with inflation still above target and core inflation rising...

9th July 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Chile Consumer Prices (Jun. 2025)

The larger-than-expected fall in Chilean inflation, to 4.1% y/y, in June supports our view that policymakers will resume its easing cycle with a 25bp cut, to 4.75%, later this month.

8th July 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.)

Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) lowered its policy rate by another 50bp, to 8.00%, at today’s meeting, but the accompanying communications were slightly less dovish and point to a slower pace of...

26th June 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (Jun. 2025)

The fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 5.3% y/y in the first half of June reinforces our view that the central bank won’t push through further interest rate hikes. An easing cycle is likely...

26th June 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jun 2025)

The jump in Mexican inflation to 4.5% in the middle of this month won’t be enough to prevent Banxico from proceeding with a (clearly-signalled) 50bp interest rate cut at its meeting later this week...

24th June 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Jun. 2025)

Brazil’s central bank opted, as we had expected, for a 25bp hike in the Selic today to 15.00% and, while the tightening cycle is probably now over, Copom went out of its way to push back against any...

18th June 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (May 2025)

The slightly larger-than-expected fall in Brazil’s headline inflation, to 5.3% y/y, was driven by weaker food inflation. Underlying price pressures continued to strengthen and, against that backdrop...

10th June 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (May 2025)

Mexico’s headline inflation rate jumped to 4.4% y/y in May but this was mainly driven by stronger non-core prices and so is unlikely to trouble officials at the central bank. Indeed, with the economy...

9th June 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil GDP (Q1 2025)

The 1.4% q/q expansion in Brazil’s GDP was partly driven by a boom in the agricultural sector at the start of the year, which is likely to unwind. But it now looks like the economy is on course to...

30th May 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (May 2025)

The fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 5.4% y/y in the first half of May means that the risks to our forecast for a final hike in June are skewed to the downside. But if the Q1 GDP data due...

27th May 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May 2025)

The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate in the first half of May, to 4.2% y/y, was driven in large part by non-core components and is unlikely to sway Banxico’s thinking...

22nd May 2025 · 2 mins read