Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2025) The Brazilian central bank made clear in the statement accompanying today’s 100bp interest rate hike (to 14.25%) that it’s far more concerned about high inflation than weakness in the economy. We now... 19th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q4 2024) Growth in Chile’s economy slowed to 0.4% q/q in Q4, but more timely monthly activity data suggest that the economy headed into 2025 with more momentum. This, combined with above-target inflation... 18th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Feb. 2025) The sharp rise in Brazilian inflation to 5.1% y/y in February is likely to be followed by further increases in the coming months. Our base case is that next week’s Copom meeting will see the final... 12th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q4 2024) The sharp slowdown in Brazil’s GDP growth, to just 0.2% q/q, in the final quarter of last year confirms that the economy’s recent period of strong growth has come to an abrupt end. We now think the... 7th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb. 2025) The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 3.8% y/y in February was entirely driven by non-core inflation and therefore won’t be a major concern for the central bank. Indeed, we think that the... 7th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Trump gives one-month reprieve on Canada & Mexico auto tariffs President Donald Trump's decision to grant a one-month exemption to the Big Three Automakers (Ford, GM & Stellantis) is something of a disappointment given the earlier heavy hints from his Commerce... 5th March 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb. 2025) The jump in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 5.0% y/y in the first half of February means Copom will almost certainly press ahead with another 100bp hike in the Selic rate to, 14.25%, at its March... 25th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Feb. 2025) The fall in core inflation in Mexico in the first half of February combined with weak economic activity, means that Banxico is likely to press ahead with another 50bp cut at its meeting next month. 24th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response US-Russia talks don’t signal near-term end to the war The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the... 18th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Jan. 2025) The fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate in January, to 4.6% y/y, was mainly due a drop in housing inflation and is unlikely to prevent the central bank from delivering another 100bp hike to the... 11th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Is Argentina's economy back? And what just happened in Turkey? 1742396400 Argentina's President Javier Milei has made impressive progress in turning the economy around, but the key question now is whether these achievements can be sustained.
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) Mexico’s central bank stepped up the pace of monetary easing to 50bp at today’s meeting, lowering the policy rate to 9.50%, and the overall communications were dovish. While a tariff-induced drop in... 6th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q4 2024 Provisional) The much larger-than-expected 0.6% q/q drop in Mexico’s GDP in Q4 is likely to strengthen the argument for a 50bp interest rate cut, to 9.50%, at next week’s Banxico meeting. That now looks like the... 30th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) Brazil’s central bank delivered on its pledge to deliver another 100bp hike to the Selic rate, to 13.25%, and another 100bp increase at March’s Copom meeting is all but certain. For now, we are... 29th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan. 2025) Brazil’s headline inflation rate eased to 4.5% y/y in the first half of January, but signs that underlying price pressures continued to build mean that Copom will press ahead with another 100bp hike... 24th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan. 2025) The fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of January, to 3.8% y/y, means that Banxico is likely to continue its easing cycle next month. But with the Fed set to pause its pause its cutting cycle... 23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read
