Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (June 2024) The Brazilian central bank kept the Selic rate unchanged at 10.50% and with the headline inflation rate set to rise further in the coming months, we see no room for a resumption of the easing cycle... 19th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (May 2024) The rise in inflation in Brazil to 3.9% y/y in May and, more importantly, the re-acceleration in underlying core services inflation means we no longer expect a rate cut at the Copom meeting next week... 11th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024) Mexico’s headline inflation rate came in at a weaker-than-expected 4.7% y/y in May but the continued strength of core services inflation means that it is increasingly likely that Banxico will leave... 7th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q1 2024) The sharp pick-up in Brazil’s GDP growth to 0.8% q/q in Q1 is a temporary rebound from a weak patch in the second half of last year and doesn’t mark the start of a strong recovery. Still, the pace of... 4th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico’s Election Result The ruling Morena candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum, is on course to be declared the country’s next (and first female) president after Sunday’s election and the party’s coalition also appears to be on... 3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (May 2024) The decline in Brazilian inflation to 3.7% y/y in the first half of this month, coupled with signs of easing price pressures in some core categories, will provide relief to policymakers at the central... 28th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May 2024) The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.8% y/y in the first half of May was driven by another jump in agricultural price inflation. But core services inflation remained uncomfortably strong... 23rd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q1 2024) The 1.9% q/q rise in Chile’s GDP in Q1 confirms that the economy is gathering momentum following a weak 2023 and has prompted us to revise up our (once above consensus) 2024 GDP growth forecast to 2.8... 20th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Colombia GDP (Q1 2024) The 1.1% q/q expansion in Colombia’s GDP in Q1 confirmed that the economy made a strong start to the year and supports our view that the central bank won’t step up the pace of easing at its next... 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Copom minutes (May 2024) The minutes to last week’s Brazilian central bank meeting suggest that the balance on Copom is, overall, more cautious than had been widely assumed immediately after the meeting. That may provide some... 14th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (April 2024) The fall in Brazilian inflation to 3.7% y/y last month and, more importantly, the sharp decline in underlying services inflation suggests that, despite the hawkish language in the Copom statement on... 10th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (May 2024) The Brazilian central bank’s decision to cut the Selic rate by 25bp to 10.50% (rather than opt for another 50bp step) and drop its forward guidance confirm that most of the rate cuts in this easing... 8th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024) The slightly larger-than-expected rise in Chile’s inflation to 4.0% y/y in April supports our view that the central bank will once again slow the pace of easing with a 50bp cut (to 6.00%) at its... 8th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q1 Provisional) The slightly faster-than-expected 0.2% q/q expansion in Mexico’s economy in Q1, alongside strong underlying price pressures and the delay to rate cuts in the US, mean that Banxico is all but certain... 30th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (April 2024) The slightly lower-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure for the first half of this month, of 3.8% y/y, and signs of softening underlying core price pressures might just be enough to give Copom... 26th April 2024 · 2 mins read
