Latin America Economics Update Colombia should continue to outperform next year While Colombia is unlikely to avoid the global slowdown altogether, we think it will outperform the likes of Brazil and Mexico next year. We expect GDP growth of 3.0% in 2012 and the strength of the... 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Reform agenda must keep up with commodity boom In a recent visit to the UK, the President of Colombia, Juan Manuel Santos, underlined his ambitious plans for the expansion of his country’s burgeoning commodities sector. But while that may support... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Q3 GDP surprises on the upside, but still likely to slow Today’s better-than-expected Mexican GDP data present upside risks to our growth forecasts and mean that the economy may now expand by 4.0% this year. Even so, with the outlook for the global economy... 22nd November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Room for manoeuvre The deepening crisis in the euro-zone, coupled with fears of a slowdown in China, has meant that concerns about overheating in Latin America’s major economies have quickly given way to worries over... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean GDP growth to slow as global headwinds build The fact that growth accelerated in Venezuela in Q3 but slowed in Chile paints a false picture of the relative strengths of each economy. Both are vulnerable to the drop in commodity prices that we... 18th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile, Peru play a waiting game on rates The Central Bank of Chile (CBC) kept its policy rate at 5.25% for a fifth successive month last night. While policymakers in Chile and Peru will continue to exercise caution by not rushing into easing... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What are the implications of Argentina's subsidy cuts? Initial measures aimed at reducing Argentina’s growing subsidy bill are too small to make a meaningful difference to the public finances. Nevertheless, the commitment to review the entire subsidy... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: modest rate cuts likely in 2012 Policy makers in Peru left interest rates unchanged at 4.25% last night. In the very near-term strong domestic conditions, rising inflation and a planned fiscal stimulus will deter rate cuts, despite... 11th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian inflation has peaked The official release of October’s inflation data this morning confirmed what yesterday’s leak from the statistics agency had suggested – Brazilian inflation has peaked. We expect it to fall back to... 11th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador’s current pace of growth is unsustainable Ecuador’s rapid pace of recent growth has been built on rising prices in global oil markets. With energy prices more likely to fall back than rise over the next 6-12 months, we expect the economy to... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Concerns about Mexican inflation fading, rate cuts on the way Three months after the sell-off of the peso began, there are still few signs that the weaker currency has passed through to higher inflation. Indeed, we continue to expect inflation to remain close to... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia-US trade agreement could ease Dutch Disease News that the Free Trade Agreement between Colombia and the US has finally been signed is clearly positive. Not only should the pact boost trade between the two nations, but the elimination of tariffs... 8th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Is there a floor on Brazilian interest rates? The decision by Brazil’s central bank to start monetary easing has revived talk about a “floor” on interest rates in Latin America’s largest economy. At present, the minimum rate of return on popular... 2nd November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian industry slides into recession Data released today confirmed that Brazilian industry slipped into recession in Q3, while the manufacturing PMI points to a difficult Q4. In response, the recent imposition of trade tariffs sets a... 1st November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: currency controls could prove self-defeating The raft of measures announced by Argentina’s government over the past few days to stem capital flight is unlikely to prevent further falls in the peso. Indeed, there is a real and growing risk that... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates could still fall next year The Central Bank of Colombia (BANREP) left interest rates on hold at 4.5% on Friday night, but signalled a willingness to hike rates if the global environment improves. Nonetheless, while the... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
