Latin America Economics Update Resilience in the Mexican economy unlikely to last The latest survey data suggest that the Mexican economy ended 2011 in decent shape. But while the economy may have expanded by about 4.0% last year, we continue to think that this year will be much... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Uruguay better placed to weather slowdown than Argentina Uruguay and Argentina both delivered impressive growth in Q3. Nevertheless, while they will both inevitably suffer over the coming quarters as the world economy slows, the key difference is that... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Policy set to ease across the region in 2012 Growth concerns will increasingly dominate Latin American policymakers’ agendas as we move into 2012. With many of the world’s advanced economies headed towards recession, and China’s economy... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Q3 probably as good as it gets for Colombia The Colombian economy has outperformed much of the region in recent quarters and is on track to expand by 5.5% this year. But while it should continue to do relatively well next year, it seems... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: next in the region to commence rate cuts? Chile’s central bank (CBC) kept interest rates at 5.25% last night. With the euro-zone debt crisis set to escalate in 2012, the CBC could be the next central bank in Latin America to commence rate... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How would a crisis in Europe hit Latin American banks? 8th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Material changes to the “model” still seem unlikely Recent signs of a more orthodox approach to policymaking in Argentina are encouraging. But there is still no decisive evidence of a shift away from the prevailing economic “model”. Whatever the... 8th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Emerging Economies: Five key calls for 2012 We broadly agree with the consensus view that most emerging economies will hold up well in 2012. But with the US set to slow and the euro-zone heading towards break-up, the path ahead is going to be... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am equities to disappoint in 2012, outperform in 2013 In light of our revised assumption on the timing of the euro-zone break-up, we have revised our equity markets forecasts. We think that all of the region’s markets will fall next year, and expect them... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Interest rates to fall further as economy stalls The Brazilian economy stagnated in Q3 and looks set to contract in Q4. As we said it would be at the time, the central bank’s decision to cut interest rates early has been fully vindicated and the... 6th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Slowing growth in Chile bolsters the case for rate cuts Recent indicators suggest that the pace of growth in Chile has continued to slow in Q4 as external demand weakens. There is probably now a 50/50 chance of a rate cut in December but, either way... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Quick fixes are storing up a large adjustment in Venezuela Balance of payments strains in Venezuela are showing no signs of easing. While President Chavez’s short-term fixes may ultimately enable him to squeeze through October’s presidential election, the... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian interest rates heading for single digits The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) cut interest rates by 50bps to 11.0% last night. The ongoing global turmoil, and subsequent negative impact on Brazilian growth, means that further rate cuts are... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rate cuts still likely in Peru as economy outperforms Data released today confirmed that Peru was among the region’s star performers in Q3 and is on track to expand by 7.0% this year. Nonetheless, with the outlook for the global economy deteriorating... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates still likely to fall next year The Central Bank of Colombia (BANREP) bucked the regional trend and raised interest rates by 25bps to 4.75% on Friday night. Nonetheless, with inflation now likely to have peaked, we suspect that this... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian banks tighten the screw The relative resilience of Brazilian credit growth when measured in annual terms masks the fact that lending growth has slowed fairly sharply when measured on a month-on-month basis. Industry has... 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
