Latin America Economics Update Ecuador: At the mercy of oil prices Fiscal profligacy and a lack of prudence in managing commodity revenues have left Ecuador highly exposed to a downturn in global oil prices. Limited financing options are likely to turn up the heat on... 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update The next big move in Brazilian rates will be down The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) hiked interest rates by 25bps to 12.50% last night. The tone of the accompanying statement suggests that rates may now have peaked, although we wouldn’t rule out... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian rebalancing has further to run On the face of it, there is early hope that the Colombian economy has begun to rebalance away from domestic demand-led and towards export-led manufacturing growth. But with the exchange rate still... 21st July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s economy in better shape than current debate suggests There has been a growing debate in recent weeks over the extent to which Peru’s economy has slowed, with some commentators foretelling a collapse in growth. A closer inspection of the latest data... 20th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rates should peak this year The recent spike in food inflation has a little further to run and, in most economies, core inflation pressures are building. But even so we still expect headline inflation to start to fall in pretty... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: interest rates pause for breath The Central Bank of Chile (CBC) as expected held interest rates at 5.25% last night. Strong domestic conditions and above-target inflation make further increases likely, but we are nearing the end of... 16th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: credit where credit’s due? The debate about whether or not Brazil is in the midst of a consumer credit bubble has reached fever pitch over the past few days. Our view is that the current pace of credit growth is unsustainable... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian rates on hold as policymakers await Humala The Central Bank of Peru (BCRP) held interest rates at 4.25% for the second consecutive month last night. With investment spending and inflation set to accelerate later this year, we continue to... 9th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: hard landing on the horizon Growth in Argentina has shown few signs of slowing in 2011 and we remain concerned about overheating and a hard landing further ahead. Excessively loose policy continues to fuel booming domestic... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fresh controls unlikely to signal end of Brazil’s ‘currency war’ News that Brazil is planning a range of new measures to stem the rise in the real hit the currency yesterday but any such action is unlikely to have a lasting impact. 7th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: still no rush to tighten June’s IMEF surveys suggest that the Mexican economy picked up a little pace in the second quarter of this year. Nonetheless, growth remains sluggish compared to the rest of the region and with the US... 6th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian industry still struggling to keep up The sharp rise in Brazilian industrial production in May largely reflects a rebound from the drop in output seen in April. The sector has broadly stagnated over the past couple of months and the fall... 2nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Q1 GDP leaves Colombian policymakers with more work to do Data showing that the Colombian GDP grew at close to 8% annualised in the first quarter of this year, despite the impact of the heaviest rains in three decades, adds to recent evidence that the... 24th June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Worrying signs from Brazil's current account The fact Brazil is spending its windfall from higher commodity prices – plus more – is good news for the global economy, but carries significant risks for the country itself. In particular, it means... 23rd June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates still have further to rise The Central Bank of Colombia (BANREP) hiked interest rates by 25bps to 4.25% on Friday night. Although policymakers softened their tone from previous meetings, we still expect rising inflation to... 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Food price shock still has a little further to run Central bankers – and some in the markets – appear increasingly hopeful that the recent spike in food price inflation, which has driven headline inflation above its target in pretty much every country... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
