Latin America Economics Update Pillars to Colombian growth set to weaken While the Colombian economy performed well in the first half of this year, the current global market mayhem underlines our belief that the economy will slow next year. But growth is unlikely to... 23rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How vulnerable is Chile to a global slowdown? Chile’s open economy is more susceptible than most in the region to a deterioration of external demand. Policy stimulus will provide some relief, however we anticipate a below-consensus 3% growth in... 23rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What should we make of the real’s fall from grace? Fears that the slump in the Brazilian real will lead to a further rise in inflation look greatly exaggerated. There is almost no relationship between fluctuations in the currency and inflation, while... 23rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: threat of overheating still looms large Argentina’s Q2 GDP figures reinforce our belief that the economy is overheating and poised for a sharp correction in the coming years. Official statistics continue to overstate the economy’s growth... 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Uruguay’s slowing growth to continue for a while yet Uruguay’s economy slowed in Q2 as a deteriorating trade balance weighed on growth. While weaker external conditions mean that growth will cool further over the next year, relatively solid fundamentals... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s inflation inaccuracies underlie deeper economic ills Official statistics continue to drastically underreport inflation in Argentina, resulting in a number of serious economic distortions. Building pressures on the regime make a recession probable... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Weak wage growth to underpin fragile domestic demand Mexico’s status as a low productivity economy means that jobs are created even at low rates of GDP growth. The problem, however, is that a surplus pool of labour, coupled with a growing population and... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: in no rush to follow Brazil’s lead on rates Peru’s central bank (BCRP) kept its benchmark lending rate at 4.25% last night. While it appears to have dropped its tightening bias, we believe that it is premature to forecast any policy easing over... 10th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: IMEF manufacturing survey not as promising as it seems While the Mexican IMEF manufacturing index bucked the global trend and increased in August, there is no hiding from the weak outlook for the economy. With GDP growth set to disappoint, we expect... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian inflation edges further above target Data released this afternoon confirm that Brazilian inflation rose further above the central bank’s target in August. The news will do little to calm fears that, following last week’s surprise... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Q2 GDP data solid, Q3 looking dire Brazil’s economy grew by a solid if not spectacular 0.8% q/q in Q2, but leading indicators suggest that it will struggle to expand at half that pace in Q3. 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico most likely to follow Brazil’s lead? The surprise decision to cut Brazilian interest rates earlier this week has raised the prospect of rate cuts elsewhere in Latin America. If the developed world does eventually slide into recession... 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazilian rates? After last night’s surprise 50bps cut in interest rates, further monetary easing in Brazil will depend on how events elsewhere in the global economy play out. We doubt that rates will be cut as... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Will the next move in Mexican rates be down? Above-target inflation means that it would require a major shock to the global economy for the Mexican central bank to cut interest rates this year. But with growth set to slow by more than most... 31st August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru slows but solid fundamentals remain intact Peru’s economy witnessed a moderation of growth in Q2 as investors reacted to the emergence of new President Ollanta Humala. While growth will cool further in the near-term on a weaker external... 31st August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Global uncertainty prompts pause in rate hikes The Central Bank of Colombia’s (BANREP) decision to hold interest rates at 4.5% was prompted by the recent uncertainty in the global economy. Rate hikes may resume once the current market turmoil has... 23rd August 2011 · 1 min read
