Latin America Economics Update Dollar drought beginning to bite in Venezuela The ongoing dollar drought is starting to have severe repercussions for the Venezuelan economy. We continue to expect GDP to contract next year, while the risk of a debt default is increasing by the... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: entering an era of slower growth A highly favourable external backdrop has transformed Peru into one of the region’s undoubted growth stars over the course of the past decade, but the latest GDP data suggest that the tide has now... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Q3 the low point for Mexican GDP We expect Mexico’s poor performance in the third quarter to be the low point for the economy. While GDP growth will struggle to top 1.2% this year, it remains on course to accelerate to over 4% during... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Default remains a genuine concern in Venezuela We remain sceptical about the ability of the Venezuelan government to service its mounting foreign currency debt over the medium term. Default remains a clear risk, especially if oil prices fall. 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: ignoring the lessons from Venezuela? Several high profile changes to Argentina's cabinet have reawakened speculation that the country is on the brink of formalising a multiple exchange rate system. If the experience of Venezuela is... 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile cuts rates again to revive flagging domestic demand Chile’s central bank (BCC) lowered its policy rate by a further 25bps last night in response to fresh signs that domestic demand is cooling. With growth and inflation set to remain weak for the... 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Q3 data underline challenges awaiting Bachelet Chilean Q3 GDP data were stronger than expected, but this was largely driven by a rebound in mining exports which is unlikely to be sustained. With investment weakening and the current account deficit... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fresh falls in Latin American currencies Latin American currencies have tumbled against the US dollar since mid-October and in many cases they are close to the lows that they reached during the height of this summer’s market sell-off... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s recovery fizzles out in Q3 The sharp pick-up in Brazilian growth in the second quarter of this year seems to have fizzled out in the third quarter. Indeed, it's possible that GDP data due to be released early next month will... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What will Bachelet 2.0 mean for Chile? This weekend’s Chilean Presidential Election may go down as the most one-sided affair in recent memory, with former president Michelle Bachelet set to sweep to a second term in office. But while the... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update The worst is now behind Mexico The Mexican economy has had a year to forget, but the worst should now be behind it. While GDP growth may struggle to top 1.2% this year, we expect it to accelerate to over 4% y/y in 2014-15. This... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru follows Chile’s lead with surprise rate cut Peru surprised markets with an interest rate cut last night, becoming the latest in a line of Latin American central banks to launch into easing mode in 2013. Although the timing of yesterday’s rate... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Falling food inflation but core concerns persist in Brazil Slowing food inflation dragged headline inflation in most of Latin America last month, but that masks significant differences in the underlying outlook for inflation within the region. While inflation... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s industrial recovery likely to outshine Brazil’s October’s manufacturing PMIs rose to exactly the same level in both Brazil and Mexico. But of the two economies, we suspect the recovery is more likely to be sustained in Mexico. 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Low inflation to delay Colombian interest rate hikes The monetary easing cycle in Colombia appears to now be over but, by the same token, interest rate hikes are probably still some way off. We expect rates to remain lower for longer than most expect... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Sep.) Our Argentina Activity Indicator points to decent growth for Argentina’s economy in Q3. However, this is partly the result of a further loosening of the public purse strings in the run-up to last... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
