Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real strengthens on policy U-turn The Brazilian real has rallied towards 1.95/US$ in recent weeks after government officials hinted that a stronger currency would be tolerated to help contain inflation. By contrast, in most other... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuelan bond yields set to return to double-digit rates Global copper mine supply grew at its fastest rate in eight years in the closing months of 2012 and mine output is likely to grow just as quickly this year. This should enable smelters to raise their... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil consumption: holding up for now Despite the surprise fall in retail sales in December, Brazilian consumer spending growth appears to have been strong in the final quarter of last year. The problem is that with local producers either... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican slowdown confined to industrial sector Mexican fourth quarter GDP data suggest that despite the weakness of industry in the final months of last year, domestically focussed sectors have taken up the slack. We expect the economy to grow by... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador gambles on a third Correa term Rafael Correa’s emphatic victory in yesterday’s Ecuadorian Presidential Election looks to have breathed new life into a Latin American left which has suffered a series of setbacks in recent months... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update 'Currency wars' pose dilemma for Chilean policymakers Chile’s Central Bank faces a difficult balancing act between cooling buoyant domestic demand, which suggests a need for tighter monetary policy, and taming a strong currency, which is already weighing... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine peso falls through 5/US$ and set to keep going The Argentine peso fell to a record low of 5/US$ today, however most small businesses and consumers are forced to access dollars at an even weaker rate on the black market. Going forward, we expect... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latest devaluation won't cure Venezuela's economic ills The Venezuelan authorities bowed to the inevitable late on Friday and devalued the bolivar fuerte. Although this should help to ease some of the strains in the public finances, it won’t do much to... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: interest rate change still looks a distant prospect The latest data do little to change our view that Peruvian interest rates are going nowhere this year. Persistent concerns over the strength of the sol mean that policymakers are far more likely to... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation: from bad to worse Brazil’s inflation data are going from bad to worse. Headline inflation rose to a 12-month high of 6.2% last month and is likely to remain above 6% for at least the first half of this year. The... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s labour market puzzle The most puzzling aspect of Brazil’s poor economic performance of the past 18 months is that it has come alongside an improvement in the labour market. We think the explanation lies in Brazil’s low... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fading credit boom takes the shine off Latin America Signs that Latin America’s lending boom has faded support our belief that credit can’t continue to be as big an economic driver as in the recent past, and we expect GDP growth to ease this year... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: still no sign of a pick-up in investment The stagnation in Brazilian industrial production in December means that the sector contracted once again in the final quarter of last year. What’s more, the drop in capital goods output suggests that... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: equity outperformance unlikely to be sustained The recent rally in Argentine equities stands in stark contrast to a falling foreign currency bond market this year. A weak bond market performance is largely explained by a US court case which has... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to remain lower for longer The slowdown in Colombian growth has been driven as much by structural as by cyclical factors, and suggests that interest rates could remain low for an extended period. We expect at least one more... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Dec.) The Capital Economics Argentina Activity Indicator shows that Argentina’s economy continued to recover in the final quarter of 2012. Even so, we estimate that GDP growth was close to zero for the year... 25th January 2013 · 1 min read
