Latin America Economics Update Mexican growth close to bottoming out The slowdown in Mexican GDP growth to 0.7% y/y in Q4 means that the economy grew by just 1.1% in 2013 – its weakest performance since 2009, and its second weakest performance since 2002. Nonetheless... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile cuts rates and signals further easing to come The Central Bank of Chile (BCC) cut interest rates last night and signalled that further easing is possible in the months ahead. However, with inflation likely to edge up over the coming months, we... 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s wasted decade Concerns about widening current account deficits have been a key factor driving the recent turbulence in financial markets in Latin America. But while the deterioration in the current account... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Feb 14.) Our Argentina Activity Indicator (AAI) suggests that the economy grew by around 3% y/y in the final quarter of last year – broadly unchanged from the pace of growth in Q3. But this pre-dates last... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: no rate cuts for now Despite the recent economic slowdown, high inflation and a widening current account deficit mean that the Peruvian Central Bank will probably have to keep monetary conditions tighter than they would... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A sluggish end to another disappointing year for Brazil The release of retail sales data for December allows us to have a first stab at estimating growth in Brazil the final quarter of last year. We reckon that the economy expanded at an annual rate of... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA can’t keep up intervention for long Despite the recent calm, the continued decline of Argentine foreign exchange reserves suggests that it is only a matter of time before the BCRA is forced to let the peso fall again. We continue to... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No evidence that weaker currencies are fuelling higher inflation Inflation was lower-than-expected across much of Latin America last month, which may help to dampen fears that weak currencies will fuel higher inflation. Despite this, another 50bp interest rate hike... 7th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: BANREP to allow further peso weakness In contrast to other parts of the emerging world, Colombian policymakers have welcomed the recent depreciation of the peso with open arms. We suspect that a further decline in the peso would be... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s economy slows sharply at end of 2013 Activity data released today suggest that Chile’s economy slowed sharply in the final months of last year. Growth in Q4 as a whole may have slipped to just 2.7% y/y – its slowest rate in almost four... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More reasons to expect Mexican industry to outperform January’s manufacturing surveys add to the evidence that Mexico will outperform Brazil over the coming months. While Mexican manufacturing growth is on course to accelerate towards 5% y/y, there is... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Will market turmoil trigger interest rate hikes? The recent market turmoil increases the likelihood of another 50bp interest rate hike in Brazil, but policymakers elsewhere in the region are unlikely to tighten monetary policy unless the currency... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela is unlikely to follow Argentina’s lead The parallels between the current economic situations in Argentina and Venezuela only go so far. While both economies have been ravaged by rampant inflation in recent years and haven depleted their... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Where next for the Argentine peso? The recent market turmoil increases the likelihood of another 50bp interest rate hike in Brazil, but policymakers elsewhere in the region are unlikely to tighten monetary policy unless the currency... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A sluggish start to 2014 Latin American financial markets have had a soft start to 2014, with currencies continuing to fall against the US dollar, benchmark equities declining and the regional EMBI bond yields rising. Looking... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update 2014: a stellar year for Mexican industry The decline in Mexican industrial production in November will test the patience of even the biggest Mexico bulls. Nonetheless, with US demand going from strength-to-strength, in this Watch we explain... 22nd January 2014 · 1 min read
