Latin America Economics Update Rebound in Peruvian growth unlikely to be sustained Peru’s economy picked up pace in Q2, but the scope for a further acceleration of GDP growth from here looks extremely limited. In contrast to the consensus, we believe that the trend will be towards a... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil FX intervention plan looks big by EM standards The $60bn currency intervention programme announced by Brazil late last night represents one of the boldest attempts yet by an EM central bank to shore up its currency following the rout of recent... 23rd August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies back in the firing line Latin America has not been spared in the latest emerging market sell-off, with currencies and bonds tumbling over the past few weeks. However, in contrast to May’s sell-off, equity markets have so far... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican economy to recover from bad year Weak Q2 GDP data was the last thing that Mexican markets needed after the rout of the past few days. That being said, we suspect that Q2 will mark the low point for the economy and that growth will... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: how will policymakers respond to market rout? The sell-off in the Brazilian real over the past month has triggered a sharp upward revision in market expectations for interest rates over the next year. In this month’s Watch we explain why... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean growth settling down to slower trend Today’s GDP data confirm that Chile’s economy is cooling and is likely to settle at a slower trend pace in the coming years. Given the current resilience of domestic demand, we do not foresee a... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean central bank bides its time over rate move Yesterday’s central bank meeting in Chile revealed that policymakers are taking a cautious approach to changes in interest rates despite evidence of a slowing economy. We remain comfortable with our... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Energy reform to support outperformance of Mexican economy The Mexican government’s plan to open up the oil industry to foreign investment could boost annual GDP growth by 0.3%-pts over the next decade and also give a substantial boost to tax receipts. This... 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Chilean monetary policy? By all accounts this week’s interest rate decision in Chile is set to be a close call. We’re forecasting a 25bp cut to 4.75% but acknowledge that a slightly firmer tone to the recent economic data... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru rates on hold, cuts still unlikely this year Last night’s central bank meeting in Peru has done little to alter our baseline view that interest rates are going nowhere this year. We expect the economy to weaken in the coming months, however... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation concerns ease in Brazil and Mexico July’s data will help to allay inflation concerns in Latin America’s two largest economies – Brazil and Mexico. Inflation fell back to within target range in both countries and looks set to remain... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fiscal populism setting Argentina up for a fall Argentina’s public finances have deteriorated by more than meets the eye under Cristina Fernández. Increased monetisation and the transfer of resources from public institutions have prevented the... 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Don’t read too much into the fall in Mexico’s PMI Both the Mexican and Brazilian manufacturing PMIs fell in July but the similarities end there. In Brazil, the PMI has a fairly good relationship with actual activity data and suggests that the... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Jun.) Our Argentina Activity Indicator suggests that GDP growth picked up by more than we had initially expected in Q2. And with the fiscal purse strings set to be loosened further ahead of October’s mid... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets steady following Q2 rout Latin American financial markets have steadied in July after a sharp sell-off over the previous couple of months. We suspect that markets will stay under pressure in the near term. However, the worst... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil fiddles around the fiscal edges The freeze to some areas of government spending announced by Brazil’s government last night amounts to further fiddling around the edges at the expense of more fundamental fiscal reforms needed to... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
