Latin America Economics Update Region increasingly vulnerable to lower commodity prices The slump in commodity markets last week has raised questions over how exposed Latin America is to a period of lower prices. While the risks vary from country-to-country, the bigger picture is that... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update China's slowdown: who is most vulnerable? The past week has seen renewed concern that a slowdown in China will drag on growth in the rest of the emerging world, including Latin America. We think these concerns are justified. But while Latin... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil tightening cycle to be smaller than most expect The decision by Brazil’s central bank to raise interest rates by 25bps – as opposed to the 50bps that was priced into the market – suggests that the tightening cycle is likely to be less aggressive... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico reform programme takes shape The Mexican economy has slowed since the start of the year, taking some of the shine off of one of Latin America’s more positive growth stories. Nonetheless, we expect the economy to rebound later... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Maduro's victory could herald period of instability in Venezuela Despite hopes for a new pragmatism, there is little evidence to suggest that Nicolas Maduro’s victory in yesterday’s Venezuelan presidential election will herald the dawn of an era of improved... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile, Peru to extend long pause on interest rates The central banks of Chile and Peru left their respective policy rates unchanged last night and offered little to suggest that a near-term rate move is on the cards. In the case of Chile, though, it... 12th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latest inflation rise tips balance in favour of Brazil rate hike Brazilian inflation breached the upper bound of its target range last month, tipping the balance in favour of a hike in the benchmark Selic interest rate at next week’s COPOM meeting. Nonetheless, it... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian rate-cutting cycle over We suspect that the interest rate cutting cycle in Colombia has come to an end. Admittedly, to the extent that there are changes in the next 6-9 months, rates are more likely to fall than rise. But... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazilian inflation? Various changes to regulated prices, coupled with general uncertainty over the path of food inflation, mean that it has become increasingly difficult to predict month-to-month changes in Brazilian... 4th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina moves a step closer to default Argentina’s final offer to ‘holdout’ bondholders looks set to fall well short of the level required to reach an agreement, leaving the government closer than ever to a technical default. With the... 3rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Manufacturing recovery slows The latest PMI surveys suggest that Latin America’s manufacturing recovery lost a little steam in the final month of Q1. At a country level, Mexico continues to outperform Brazil. 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine debt offer may be too little, too late Time is running out for Argentina to find a workable solution in a US court case which threatens to trigger a messy sovereign default. While the country’s fate is still technically in its own hands... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Feb.) Our Argentina Activity Indicator suggests that the modest rebound in growth witnessed in late 2012 has continued in the early months of 2013. Even so, we are sceptical about the chances of a sustained... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian rates to remain low for an extended period We suspect that the decision by the Colombian central bank to reduce interest rates by 50bps to 3.25% was an attempt to front-load rate cuts rather than the start of a more aggressive easing cycle... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican peso bucks EM sell-off Latin American assets and currencies have sold off over the past month as a weaker pace of emerging market growth and fears of an escalation of the euro-zone debt crisis have weighed on investor... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian industry to remain under pressure Today’s Colombian GDP data were strong, but they also signal that a boom in the natural resources sector is harming other parts of the economy – notably industry. As a result, we doubt that GDP will... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
