Latin America Economics Update Debt overhang a risk on horizon for parts of Latin America Lending growth has continued to cool in most parts of Latin America over the course of 2013. Although the credit boom of the past decade has yet to be reflected in a significant rise in default rates... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Is Mexico losing its fiscal discipline? Plans to run a substantially wider budget deficit in 2014 have raised concerns that the Mexican government is losing fiscal discipline. But while a spending splurge is a major risk to an otherwise... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile cuts rates as economic slowdown takes hold While the timing of last night’s interest rate cut in Chile was a little unexpected, it nonetheless confirms our long-held belief that the central bank would begin trimming its benchmark rate by the... 18th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weak activity data point to another Mexican interest rate cut The continued disappointing performance of the Mexican economy makes it is increasingly likely that last month’s interest rate cut was not a one-off. We have now pencilled in a 25bp reduction to 3.5%... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: rebound in retail sales not as impressive as it first seems The sharp pick-up in Brazilian retail sales over the past couple of months has fuelled hopes that the country’s consumer-led growth model has kicked back into gear. We’re not so sure. While spending... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Stagflation here to stay in Venezuela Inflation in Venezuela may now be close to peaking, but it will remain between 30-50% for the foreseeable future - comfortably the highest rate in Latin America. This in turn will remain a major... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru in no rush to cut rates despite slowing economy Peru’s central bank (BCRP) extended its long pause on interest rates last night and gave few hints that a change of policy is on the cards. Following a recent downgrade to the BCRP’s 2013 growth... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil interest rates heading back into double-digit territory Brazil raised interest rates by 50bps to 9.5% last night and the accompanying statement gave no hint that the recent falls in inflation might prompt policymakers to slow the pace of tightening. A... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil and Mexican inflation falls despite currency weakness So far there is no evidence that weak currencies are pushing up inflation in Latin America. Inflation edged down in both Brazil and Mexico in September and it should fall further over the next six... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Uruguayan authorities losing their grip on inflation It’s still early days, but on the basis of the latest data we remain sceptical that Uruguay’s recently revamped monetary policy will be any more successful at bringing inflation under control than the... 4th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update PMIs add to evidence that Mexican industry will overtake Brazil September’s manufacturing PMIs provide further evidence that the decent start to the year for Brazilian industry was a false dawn. By contrast, Mexican industry appears to be finding its feet after a... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador’s growth model showing signs of exhaustion Our GDP tracker suggests that the recent slowdown in Ecuador’s economy abated in Q2. But this has come alongside a sharp widening of the fiscal deficit. With external financing options limited, we are... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to stay on hold for another year Relatively subdued GDP growth looks set to ensure that interest rates in Colombia will remain lower forlonger than most expect. We think that the benchmark rate is likely to remain unchanged at 3.25... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets find their feet after summer sell-off Latin American financial markets have bounced back in September, snapping a three-month losing streak. While the US Fed’s decision to delay tapering does little to change our fundamental view on the... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s widening CA deficit reflects broader economic malaise The improvement in Brazil’s current account in August was due entirely to seasonal factors and does not alter the bigger picture that the deficit has widened sharply since the start of the year... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Aug.) Argentina’s Q2 GDP data give a misleading impression of the health of the economy. While it is true that activity has recovered following last year’s stagnation, the official figures drastically... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
