Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Brazil’s worsening fiscal position There are two aspects of the recent deterioration in Brazil's fiscal position that are especially worrying. First, it has occurred despite the fact that the economy is operating at full employment... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets to come under renewed pressure in 2014 Latin America's financial markets have stabilised during the past month, but are likely to come under pressure again in 2014 as global monetary conditions tighten and commodity prices fall. We expect... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican energy reform sets scene for stronger growth The landmark reform to open up the Mexican oil industry to private sector investment should alleviate concerns that the government’s ambitious reform programme has stalled before it has got off the... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rate cuts still likely in Chile and Peru in 2014 Policymakers in both Chile and Peru left interest rates unchanged last night, but we continue to expect monetary policy to be loosened next year as economic growth slows. We have pencilled in 50bp of... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A look ahead to 2014 elections The election calendar in Latin America is fairly quiet next year and even the two standout events - presidential elections in Colombia (in May) and Brazil (in October) - are likely to be relatively... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank dashes hopes that hiking cycle may be over The minutes to last month’s COPOM meeting, released this morning, will dash hopes that Brazilian policymakers might call a halt to interest rate hikes at their next meeting in January. 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Old habits die hard in Brazil Brazilian GDP growth was weaker than expected in Q3, while the breakdown dashed hopes that the economy is rebalancing away from consumption and towards investment. With the economy reaching the limits... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican industry moves further ahead of Brazil November’s PMI surveys add to the evidence that the outlook for Mexican manufacturing has improved markedly in recent months. By contrast, Brazilian manufacturing appears to be entering a prolonged... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to stay on hold for most of 2014 Following the Colombian central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold on Friday, we think that the Colombian economy will have to deteriorate significantly to trigger additional rate cuts... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s credit binge will have painful consequences Credit in Brazil has expanded to such an extent over the past decade that it now poses a serious risk to financial stability. The tightening of monetary policy over the past six months should help to... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Selic to remain in double-digits for foreseeable future The slight alteration to the Brazilian monetary policy committee’s (COPOM) statement suggests that we are now nearing the end of the current tightening cycle. But while there are unlikely to be... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Dollar drought beginning to bite in Venezuela The ongoing dollar drought is starting to have severe repercussions for the Venezuelan economy. We continue to expect GDP to contract next year, while the risk of a debt default is increasing by the... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: entering an era of slower growth A highly favourable external backdrop has transformed Peru into one of the region’s undoubted growth stars over the course of the past decade, but the latest GDP data suggest that the tide has now... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Q3 the low point for Mexican GDP We expect Mexico’s poor performance in the third quarter to be the low point for the economy. While GDP growth will struggle to top 1.2% this year, it remains on course to accelerate to over 4% during... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Default remains a genuine concern in Venezuela We remain sceptical about the ability of the Venezuelan government to service its mounting foreign currency debt over the medium term. Default remains a clear risk, especially if oil prices fall. 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: ignoring the lessons from Venezuela? Several high profile changes to Argentina's cabinet have reawakened speculation that the country is on the brink of formalising a multiple exchange rate system. If the experience of Venezuela is... 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
