Latin America Economics Update Brazilian growth slows as consumer spending falters The slowdown in Brazilian GDP growth, from 2.2% y/y in Q4 to 1.9% y/y in Q1, is further evidence that Latin America’s largest economy is still struggling for momentum and could increase pressure on... 30th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil leaves rates unchanged but further hikes possible in 2015 Brazil’s central bank (BCB) called a halt to its tightening cycle last night and now seems unlikely to make any changes in interest rates until after October’s presidential elections. However, it’s... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia election: Zuluaga leads Santos into a run-off A victory for either Oscar Zuluaga or Juan Manuel Santos in the second round of Colombia’s presidential election next month is unlikely to cause a stir in the markets. But with neither candidate... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican GDP growth to accelerate despite disappointing Q1 Mexican GDP growth fell short of expectations in the first quarter, but the economy looks set to fare much better over the coming years as the government presses ahead with major investments and the... 23rd May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bumpy road ahead for Lat Am markets Currencies, equities and bonds have all fared well so far this month after a turbulent past year. While we expect bouts of financial market volatility as US monetary policy becomes less accommodative... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine peso could weaken to 10/$ by year-end The recent depreciation of the Argentine peso may be small, but it could be significant in marking thestart of another prolonged decline. With rampant inflation eroding the economy’s... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile GDP: stronger than expected but still weak Chile’s economy performed better than expected in the first quarter of this year, but the bigger picture is that growth has slowed markedly from the 5.5-6.0% rates of recent years. As the commodities... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico shifts towards a sweet spot Tempting though it is to blame the recent weakness of Mexico’s economy on problems north of the border, the truth is that many of the factors that have weighed on growth over the past six months or so... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Interest rates on hold for the rest of 2014 The Chilean central bank (BCC) left interest rates unchanged last night and, despite weak economic growth, our long-held view that rates will end the year at 4% looks increasingly likely. Elevated... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia Election Watch – major reforms unlikely (again) The expected re-election of Juan Manuel Santos as Colombia’s president is good news for peace talks with the FARC, but will probably mean that major economic reforms to boost the competitiveness of... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine economy probably slipped into recession in Q1 After contracting in the fourth quarter of last year, a poor start to this year means that the Argentine economy is probably already in a technical recession. Revisions to the government’s methodology... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rising inflation to prevent interest rate cuts despite slow growth Rising inflation looks set to force policymakers in most parts of Latin America to keep monetary policy relatively tight despite evidence that the region is entering a new phase of weaker economic... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Aggressive easing unlikely Interest rates in Peru were left unchanged at 4% last night and we do not foresee aggressive monetary easing in the next 18 months. While economic growth looks set to slow, we think that a large... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Election Watch – rise in inflation eats into Dilma’s lead The latest opinion polls suggest that President Rousseff remains the clear favourite to win a second term in office in October’s elections. But there is evidence that rising inflation is eating into... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update El Niño to have limited impact on real economy The El Niño weather event that is expected later this year may cause some localised disruptions, but it is unlikely to have a marked impact on overall economic activity in the region. 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update The economic impact of World Cup 2014 The 2014 Football World Cup, which gets underway next month in Brazil, is unlikely to provide much of a boost to the country’s flagging economy in the short term – and it certainly won’t do anything... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
