Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Rocky road to elections despite better data Argentina’s new national accounts data add to the impression that the government is cleaning up its act and moving towards more orthodox policymaking. But with the economy in the midst of a slow... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets steady after January rout Latin America’s financial markets stabilised in March after a woeful start to the year. In most countries, currencies and equity markets made modest gains. Colombia’s financial markets performed... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: SICAD2 is another false dawn The Venezuelan government’s introduction of a new foreign exchange mechanism has been well received by the markets, but with no real efforts to significantly increase the supply of foreign currency we... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currency sell-off sees Colombia overtake Argentina A depreciation of the Argentine peso has caused Colombia to overtake Argentina as the region’s third largest economy. Meanwhile, with a shortage of hard currency biting and the bolivar weakening... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: strong growth in Q4, but weakness to come Colombian GDP growth beat expectations in the fourth quarter, but we doubt that the impressiveperformance can be sustained. Lower commodity prices, tighter global monetary conditions and weakercredit... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: slowdown here to stay Chile’s economy slowed dramatically in the fourth quarter of last year and growth looks set to remain weak throughout 2014-15 as the copper boom comes to an end. We are forecasting GDP growth of just... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru and Chile: limited room for interest rate cuts this year The central bank of Chile (BCC) last night cut interest rates in response to a pronounced slowdown in economic growth, while Peruvian interest rates were left on hold after a pick-up in activity at... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rising inflation not as alarming as it appears The sharp rise in regional inflation over the past year is starting to cause concern in some quarters. But a closer look reveals that the increase has been due to a jump in inflation in just two... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Structural change in China: who is most vulnerable? The past week has seen renewed concern that a slowdown in China will drag on growth in the rest of the emerging world, including Latin America. We think some of these concerns are justified. But while... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: Creaking current account points to default One year after the death of Hugo Chavez, the former Venezuelan President’s legacy of fiscal largesse and rampant inflation has left the economy on the brink of a balance of payments crisis. With... 6th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: peso weakness unlikely to trigger interest rate hikes In contrast to several other emerging markets (EMs), Colombian policymakers have continued to refrain from taking steps to prevent the peso from weakening. As such, unless the currency begins to... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Outlook brightening for Mexican manufacturers Manufacturing PMIs fell in both Brazil and Mexico last month. But while we expect growth in Brazilian manufacturing to remain sluggish for the foreseeable future, we continue to expect Mexican... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: stronger growth in Q4 unlikely to be sustained Fourth quarter growth in Brazil was stronger than even we had expected, but was driven by a rebound in exports that will be difficult to sustain over the coming quarters. We continue to expect the... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Calm returns to Lat. Am. markets Following the turmoil experienced during the first few weeks of this year, financial markets across much of Latin America have stabilised over the past month. In most countries, bond yields have... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: GDP growth picks up but devil is in the detail Peru’s economy picked up pace in the final quarter of last year. But the improvement in the headline GDP figure masks concerns about the underlying balance of growth. While domestic demand remains... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican growth close to bottoming out The slowdown in Mexican GDP growth to 0.7% y/y in Q4 means that the economy grew by just 1.1% in 2013 – its weakest performance since 2009, and its second weakest performance since 2002. Nonetheless... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
