Latin America Economics Update Credit growth cools, but vulnerabilities persist The pace of private sector lending growth in most parts of Latin America has continued to cool this year, but the credit boom of the past decade means that vulnerabilities persist in a few places. At... 5th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More bad news for Brazilian industry Brazilian industrial production contracted sharply in June and July’s weak manufacturing PMI suggests that there could be more bad news in the pipeline. By contrast, the outlook for Mexican industry... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: interest rates do not have much further to rise Policymakers in Colombia hiked interest rates by another 25bp to 4.25% last night but we do not think that the current tightening cycle has much further to run. Inflation is unlikely to pose a problem... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Major shockwaves from Argentine default unlikely We do not expect Argentina’s default to trigger a prolonged ripple of contagion in the rest of Latin America. There may be some turbulence in the region’s financial markets, but we suspect that the... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine default likely to remain a (difficult) local issue Confirmation that Argentina has officially fallen into default after failing to agree a deal with holdout creditors is likely to rattle local markets and has the potential to do significant damage to... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weak Chile activity data point to further interest rate cuts Chile’s activity data for June point to GDP growth of just 2.3% y/y in Q2, an outturn that would mark the third consecutive quarter of sub-3% growth. With the economic outlook unlikely to improve in... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets take Argentina’s debt dispute in their stride The Argentine government seems increasingly likely to default on sovereign debt repayments due at the end of this month but the reaction in both local markets and markets in the region more generally... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina debt crisis: no stay brings default closer Judge Griesa’s refusal today to grant the Argentine government a stay in the ongoing debt dispute meansthat it is increasingly likely that the authorities will default on 30th July. Default is another... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First signs that Brazil inflation may be close to peaking Data to the middle of this month suggest that inflation in Brazil is likely to breach the upper bound of its target range for July as a whole but, with the pace of monthly price rises now slowing... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian interest rates on hold until after elections Policymakers at the Brazilian central bank (BCB) left interest rates unchanged at 11.0% last night and we do not foresee any rate hikes until after October’s presidential election. But with high... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: More interest rate cuts likely this year T he Chilean central bank cut interest rates last night and with policymakers clearly more concerned about weak growth than above-target inflation, we expect more reductions in the coming months. We... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lack of progress brings Argentine default closer A lack of progress in negotiations between the Argentine government and the holdouts from the 2001 debt default means that there is an increasing chance that the authorities will be forced back into... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Maduro must reform to save the Venezuelan economy Nicolas Maduro has so far failed to reverse any of the damage to the Venezuelan economy caused by his predecessor, Hugo Chavez. Rather than continue to tinker with exchange rate mechanisms, we think... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: interest rate cut unlikely to spur aggressive easing cycle We doubt that last night’s interest rate cut in Peru signals the start of an aggressive easing cycle. Inflation looks set to remain above target while a large current account deficit suggests that... 11th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: strong peso to prevent aggressive interest rate hikes The latest FX intervention programme announced by Colombian policymakers is unlikely to reverse the recent appreciation of the peso against the US$. Accordingly, we expect a strong currency to distort... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Election Watch - Election remains Dilma's to lose The latest opinion polls suggest that October’s election remains President Rousseff’s to lose. But although support for her has edged up in the latest polls, following a sharp fall earlier this year... 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
