Latin America Economics Update Peru reforms unlikely to restore rapid growth The fact that the Peruvian government has responded to weaker economic growth with reforms rather than populist spending is positive. But we do not believe it will deliver the large boost to growth... 8th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Unified FX rate not guaranteed to end Venezuelan dollar drought The Venezuelan economy remains in the grip of a dollar drought, and it seems that the government maysoon abandon its disastrous experiment with a multi-tiered exchange rate. But even if a new... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More gloom for Brazil’s manufacturers June’s business surveys suggest that manufacturing in Brazil is doing little more than stagnating. By contrast, the outlook for Mexican manufacturers is much brighter – the latest survey data suggest... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Default another headwind to economic recovery Following a failure to make an interest payment on restructured bonds yesterday, the Argentine government appears to be heading towards another default unless it can reach agreement with holdouts... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Contagion from Argentine debt dispute limited So far at least, financial markets in Argentina have largely shrugged off the fact that, barring a last minute deal with holdout creditors, the government now seems destined to enter a technical... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine recession to drag on First quarter GDP data released yesterday showed that the Argentine economy was already in recession even before the latest wrangle with the holdouts from 2005’s debt restructuring. As such, we... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Where next in Argentina’s debt dispute? A series of statements from Buenos Aires over the weekend provide hope that Argentina’s government might be able to find common ground with “holdout” creditors. Reaching a mutually agreeable solution... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: pace of policy tightening to remain gradual Policymakers in Colombia hiked interest rates by another 25bp to 4% on Friday night and we expect the tightening cycle to remain gradual. Inflation is unlikely to be a major headache, while we expect... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Rapid Q1 growth unlikely to be sustained Strong government spending ahead of Colombia’s presidential elections appears to have supported rapid growth of 6.4% y/y in Q1, but we doubt that the current pace of expansion will be sustained. As... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Santos pips Zuluaga in Colombian elections The re-election of Juan Manuel Santos as the president of Colombia will ensure the continuation of peace talks with the FARC, but is unlikely to signal a shift away from the economy’s reliance on... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rates on hold at 4% in Chile and Peru Policymakers in both Chile and Peru left interest rates unchanged at 4% last night and we expect above target inflation to restrict the room for rate cuts in the second half of the year. On balance... 13th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A weak first half for growth After a torrid 2013, financial markets across Latin America have enjoyed a decent run over the first half of 2014, with most equity markets up by around 5% and bond yields edging down too. However... 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Improving inflation outlook to keep interest rates low An improving outlook for inflation in Mexico suggests that Friday’s surprise interest rate cut is unlikely to be reversed in a hurry. We expect interest rates to remain at their new historic low of 3... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCB’s inflation headache goes from bad to worse The larger-than-expected rise in Brazil inflation in May leaves it on course to breach the upper bound of its target range over the coming months. This would be a major blow to the central bank... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Manufacturing PMI points to further weakness in Brazil Today’s manufacturing PMI data for May add to the evidence that the Brazilian economy continued to struggle in the second quarter. Meanwhile, although the US ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly fell... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Gradual interest rate hikes to continue, for now Colombian policymakers have indicated that they expect interest rates to continue rising gradually over the coming months. As such, we are revising up our forecast. But with growth set to slow and... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
