Global Economics Update G20 summit meets low expectations The best that can be said about the Los Cabos summit is that it appears to have been less fractious and better organised than November’s meeting in Cannes. But it seems to have done precious little to... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Would euro break-up trigger a Lehman-style global crisis? Our working assumption is that there will only be a limited break-up of the euro-zone, with Greece and one or two other smaller countries leaving this year or next but policy-makers managing the... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will the G20 achieve anything in Mexico? The G20 leaders’ summit, to be held in Los Cabos next week, will once again be overshadowed by the euro-zone crisis. Apart from confirmation of a substantial increase in resources for the IMF, which... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are historical monetary break-ups relevant to the euro-zone? The break-up of the euro-zone would be an unprecedented event because the euro itself is unique. But there are still some useful lessons to be learnt from previous monetary splits. 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update South Africa: strong Q1, but growth already slowing South African growth surprised on the upside in the first quarter this year, but leading indicators already suggest the economy has slowed in Q2. We expect GDP to grow by just 2.3% over the course of... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Where is the safe haven demand for gold? The price of gold has dropped sharply in recent days and is barely changed in 2012 to date. The fact that gold has struggled despite the worsening crisis in Europe has added to doubts about its status... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth steady, US-Europe divergence persists Business surveys for April suggest the global economy began the second quarter at a steady but subdued growth rate of around 3%. They also suggest the divergence between moderate growth in the US and... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Three illustrative scenarios for the price of gold The lack of a reliable income stream makes gold notoriously hard to value objectively, whilst the key drivers constantly seem to be changing. The current price is around $1,645 per ounce, having been... 3rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fears of global food price inflation unjustified Fears that the recent jump in some agricultural prices will lead to an upturn in world inflation are wide of the mark. Overall, agricultural prices have barely changed this year and are still much... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Could a country ever lose money by lending to the IMF? While there may be no such thing as a risk-free loan, lending to the IMF is probably as close as it gets. Despite the IMF’s increasing exposure to the euro-zone, its preferred creditor status and... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 inching towards more resources for IMF At their meeting later this week, G20 finance ministers are likely to focus on the risks to recovery posed by high oil prices and the euro-zone. Of these, the euro-zone crisis remains the most... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global PMI suggests manufacturing recovery lacklustre Purchasing managers’ surveys for March suggest the recovery in global manufacturing may be faltering and remains heavily dependent on growth in the US. 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What's happening to global growth? Financial markets have staged an impressive rally since late-2011 but world growth has probably not yet accelerated. Looking forward, we expect a gradual recovery in most major economies during the... 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Credit crunch has passed in US but not in the euro-zone Credit growth and lending conditions are improving gradually in the US but are still extremely weak in the euro-zone. This divergence looks likely to continue or widen in the coming months... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US economy to pull further ahead of euro-zone The divergence between the performances of the US and the euro-zone economies looks set to widen even further than we had previously expected this year and next. 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Commodity price moves do not herald a surge in inflation The recent strength of oil prices means that headline inflation may not decline as quickly as it would otherwise have done, but inflation in energy costs is still set to fall. What’s more, while oil... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
