Global Economics Update Global manufacturing improves in September, but still weak The latest purchasing managers’ surveys suggests global manufacturing conditions improved a little in September relative to August. But they are still consistent on past form with very low global... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Sluggish world trade drags down global recovery Disappointing trade figures have prompted us to cut our forecast for the growth of world trade volumes to just 2% this year. This is much lower than last year’s growth, and is slightly lower than our... 21st September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will higher commodity prices offset the benefits of QE3? The recent decline in oil prices supports our view that a third round of quantitative easing from the US Fed is unlikely to cause global inflation to take off. Unfortunately, the boost to economic... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Higher agricultural prices to have little inflation impact Even if it is sustained, this year’s rise in agricultural prices will have little impact on headline consumer prices, particularly in advanced economies. What’s more, we expect commodity prices to... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Relative resilience of global services provides little comfort Global business surveys suggest there has been a more marked slowdown in the growth of manufacturing activity than in services in the past four months. But the former is a better indicator of the... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What will bring oil prices back down again? A coordinated release of official stocks is one possible trigger for a correction in oil prices, but we still think that it is neither imminent nor necessary. A more realistic assessment of the... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing weakens further in August The industrial slowdown which began in the second quarter has accelerated and is affecting advanced and emerging economies alike. GDP is likely to contract in the euro-zone and Japan in Q3, while... 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World GDP growth slows further in Q2 It looks as if global GDP growth slipped below 3% on an annualised basis in the second quarter of this year, its lowest level since early 2009. We expect no improvement in the second half of the year. 15th August 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing makes weak start to Q3 The global economy, which slowed sharply in the second quarter, has made a poor start to the third. Growth appears to have slowed in most of the major advanced economies in July, supporting our view... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Record cereal prices not a big inflation threat Some agricultural commodity prices have hit record highs this week, but the rate of increase of these prices is much lower than it was in 2007 or 2011, while energy prices are still lower than they... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six reasons not to panic about US grain prices Fears of the “worst drought in the US in 25 years” have led to a spike in US grain prices and understandably added to concerns about another global food inflation shock. However, there are at least... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Policymakers will struggle to support global growth Hopes that the EU was finally getting to grips with its crisis and that monetary stimulus would boost global demand have faded. With euro break-up risk likely to rise in the second half of the year... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big a threat is protectionism? The increase in protectionist policies since 2008 has so far had only a modest impact on world trade. Looking forward, however, pressures to adopt more damaging trade barriers may increase... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How vulnerable is South Africa to the euro-crisis? Compared to 2008-09, South Africa is now less vulnerable to financial contagion as a result of a fresh shock to the global economy, most notably from a break-up of the euro-zone. But at the same time... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global slowdown gathers momentum With the US recovery faltering and prospects for Japan and the euro-zone worsening, there are growing risks that global growth will fall short even of our below-consensus 3% forecast this year. 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Collapse in oil prices will not save world economy The slump in oil prices results from faltering global demand and growing fears of an escalation of the euro-zone crisis. As such, it is wishful thinking to imagine that cheap oil can itself generate a... 22nd June 2012 · 1 min read
