Global Economics Update Global manufacturing recovery fading? Purchasing managers’ surveys for February suggest that, although activity has recovered from late- 2011, the global manufacturing recovery may be losing momentum already 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much will fiscal austerity constrain the recovery? Governments in most advanced economies have been tightening fiscal policy since 2010 and will continue to do so this year. Our best guess is that growth in 2012 will consequently be around 0.5... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big is the threat from rising oil prices? Oil prices are still below the levels that would represent a serious threat to the global economic recovery. But even now Europe is significantly more vulnerable than the US, despite the higher... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global trade slowed last year, prospects poor for 2012 World trade growth slowed in 2011 as economic activity faltered. There was a slight pick-up in the last quarter, which looks set to continue early this year, but we think trade is likely to remain... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is this recovery the real deal? The advanced economies have started the year strongly, led by the US, but the recovery is not secure. Growth could still be derailed by fiscal policy tightening, ongoing debt deleveraging, further... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Could a Greek default be another Lehman's moment? The global fall-out from a long-anticipated Greek government default alone should be small and manageable, even if it takes the form of a “disorderly” default without the agreement of private... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How damaging will the Iranian oil embargo be? Oil prices have jumped on the announcement that Iran intends to suspend crude exports to six EU countries, taking Brent back above $120 per barrel. We expect the impact to be short-lived for three... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will the global recovery last the course this time? After slowing in the final quarter of last year, the global economy appears to have made a strong start to 2012. But we suspect that a combination of fiscal austerity, weak consumer confidence and a... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update China will not bail out euro-zone alone Yesterday’s remarks by Chinese premier, Wen Jiabao, have yet again raised the possibility that China may put its financial weight behind international efforts to shore up the euro. We remain sceptical... 3rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing picks up in January, but will it last? The increase in manufacturing PMIs for January confirms that the global economy began 2012 in better shape than seemed likely a few weeks ago. But the improvement is from a low base and there are... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Was the Fed statement really so positive for commodities? The prices of most commodities, like those other riskier assets, have been rising after Wednesday’s Fed statement was widely interpreted as a “pledge” to keep US interest rates on hold until the end... 27th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth prospects - where we differ from consensus As the IMF released its latest forecasts yesterday and we published our Global Economic Outlook last week, this seems a good time to take stock of how our forecasts compare with others. Overall... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US manufacturing continues to shrug off euro-zone woes Manufacturing surveys for December suggest the US economy continued to resist the slowdown in Europe right up to the end of 2011. Although US growth is likely to slow this year, we expect this... 3rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Two painful lessons for commodity investors from 2011 This year’s sizeable falls in most commodity prices have highlighted two points that have actually been clear for much longer but are still not yet acknowledged by many commentators. First, even if... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Emerging Economies: Five key calls for 2012 We broadly agree with the consensus view that most emerging economies will hold up well in 2012. But with the US set to slow and the euro-zone heading towards break-up, the path ahead is going to be... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Growing divergence between US and euro-zone manufacturing November’s purchasing managers’ surveys suggest the euro-zone is sinking into an even deeper recession even while the US manufacturing sector has strengthened. 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
