Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Apr.) The business surveys for April, published by Markit today, support our view that the weakness of some of the recent data for advanced economies probably doesn’t mark the start of a sustained slowdown. 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we worry about the rise in EM public debt? The IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor has put the rise in EM public debt over the past decade back under the spotlight. While debt ratios have increased across most of the emerging world, major... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we fear a Labour government in the UK? Forget Brexit – the biggest thing to happen to the UK economy over the next couple of years could be the advent of a Labour government, and a particularly left-wing one at that. On the plus side, this... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Putting China’s surplus into perspective China’s bilateral trade surplus with the US and concerns about unfair trade practices are likely to keep US-China trade tensions boiling for a long time. But China’s overall current account surplus is... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Has Xi done enough to placate Trump? In an attempt to de-escalate trade tensions, Xi has pledged to speed up efforts to reduce trade and investment barriers, boost competition and bolster intellectual property protections. This could... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is it time to worry about a trade war? While we still think that negotiations will win out over all-out trade war, the risks of a damaging trade conflict breaking out between the US and China have risen. If the latest US-proposed tariffs... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is it time to worry about a trade war? While we still think that negotiations will win out over all-out trade war, the risks of a damaging trade conflict breaking out between the US and China have risen. If the latest US-proposed tariffs... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Money growth slowdown is not a concern Growth of almost all monetary aggregates slowed in major advanced economies in February, but we are not worried for three reasons. First, money growth has only slowed a bit. Second, changes in money... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) Markit’s global manufacturing PMI fell by the most in two years in March, providing further evidence that global growth has passed its peak. Nonetheless, the PMI remains at a high level and we think... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the global economy really slowing? The recent weakness of some economic data, business surveys and equity markets has raised fears that the global expansion is now fizzling out. We think that China will slow later this year and the US... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What causes recessions? An analysis of all the recessions which have occurred in G7 economies since 1960 throws up two main conclusions. First, while most had multiple triggers, monetary policy tightening was usually one of... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Curtain raised on future relationship negotiations As expected, on Friday the EU Council endorsed a transition period and the opening up of a new strand of negotiations on the future relationship. But unless the UK can come up with a solution to the... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trade war: economics versus markets? The economic impact of the tariffs which have been announced by the Trump administration will be small, even if they are implemented in full, and we suspect that any retaliation will be moderate. But... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Mar.) Preliminary PMIs, published by Markit today, slipped at the end of the first quarter. But they still support our view that GDP in advanced economies will expand by a decent 2½% or so this year. 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Major central banks in no hurry to follow Fed The US Fed’s decision to increase rates by 25bp yesterday and to raise its projection of future rate hikes has limited implications for the rest of the world. Other than the Bank of England, most... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Powell era begins on a hawkish note The Fed’s decision to raise interest rates by 25bp today was widely expected but some investors may have been caught off-guard by the degree to which Fed officials increased their projections for... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
