Global Economics Update How will the market moves affect the economy? The slump in equity markets would have to go a lot further to cause economic growth to slow significantly. That may yet happen, but for now prospects for global growth still look fairly bright. 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) Markit’s global manufacturing PMI stayed closed to a seven-year high in January, suggesting that the momentum of the world economy carried over into the New Year. 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Who’s afraid of a China slowdown? EMs in Latin America and Emerging Asia have benefitted most from China’s recovery over the past 18 months. These economies therefore have the most to lose if China begins to weaken again, although the... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth prospects still bright, after strong Q4 National accounts data published in the past few days confirm that the world economy maintained its momentum in Q4 last year, and all the signs are that it has started 2018 on a strong note. We expect... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Jan.) The preliminary business surveys for January, published by Markit today, suggest that economic growth in advanced economies may have gained even more momentum at the beginning of the year. 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will blockchain live up to its hype? Even though Bitcoin is almost certainly a bubble, the blockchain technology underpinning it has much greater potential. That said, claims that it will be “the next internet” may be overdoing it. 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update IMF forecasts too optimistic (as usual) We broadly agree with the forecasts for global growth in 2018 which the IMF published today. But we think it is being over-optimistic about both global and US economic growth next year. 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update IMF forecasts too optimistic (as usual) We broadly agree with the forecasts for global growth in 2018 which the IMF published today. But we think it is being over-optimistic about both global and US economic growth next year. 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A primer on Federal government shutdowns It is still possible that Congress will reach a late deal to avoid a partial government shutdown beginning this weekend, but the chances of agreement seem to be slipping away. 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Bitcoin: how worried/excited should we be? Claims that cryptocurrencies will replace established fiat currencies are rubbish; our view is that Bitcoin is a bubble. Indeed, the latest price falls suggest that the bubble is bursting – although... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Oil at $70pb is not a threat to the global economy We expect oil prices to fall back from their three-year high in the coming months due to increasing supply. But even if prices stayed around $70pb, they would not endanger the global economy. The... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Oil at $70pb is not a threat to the global economy We expect oil prices to fall back from their three-year high in the coming months due to increasing supply. But even if prices stayed around $70pb, they would not endanger the global economy. The... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Bank lending still going strong Monetary conditions should stay accommodative this year, even though the ECB has scaled back its asset purchases this month and the Fed will continue to gradually reduce its balance sheet. Bank... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will the global recovery de-synchronise in 2018? While the global economy is set to grow strongly again in 2018, the recovery is likely to de-synchronise somewhat as China slows before the US, and Europe remains strong. This could have important... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update 2018 should be another good year for consumers We estimate that household spending growth in the world’s major economies picked up from 3.1% in 2016 to 3.7% in 2017. In 2018, it is likely to grow at a similarly decent pace to last year, as real... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) Markit’s global manufacturing PMI rose to a near seven-year high in December, adding to evidence that the world economy ended 2017 in very good shape. We expect 2018 to be another year of strong... 2nd January 2018 · 1 min read
