Global Economics Update Can the G20 avert a trade war? Finance ministers from the G20 are not going to resolve the differences between the US and most other members of the group on trade policy this week. They may, however, make a commitment to reduce... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Can the G20 avert a trade war? Finance ministers from the G20 are not going to resolve the differences between the US and most other members of the group on trade policy this week. They may, however, make a commitment to reduce... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will the green economy drive the next commodity super-cycle? Commodity prices tend to go through extended boom and bust periods, sometimes known as super-cycles. The presence of super-cycles in commodity prices matters for a number of reasons but most... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Government overhauled to strengthen Party control A sweeping overhaul of the structure of China’s government unveiled at the National People’s Congress today could improve financial regulation, reduce red tape for business, and boost productivity in... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are the PMIs getting it wrong? Markit’s PMIs have recently pointed to faster economic growth than the official data show, once again raising questions about their accuracy. However, even if they are currently over-stating growth a... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update After Italy’s election, what happens next? The lengthy political uncertainty that seems likely to follow Italy’s election is unlikely on its own to do much economic damage. But we suspect that the prospect of looser fiscal policy, higher debt... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trump, tariffs and potential trigger points The steel and aluminium import tariffs announced by the US yesterday are unlikely to have a major impact on emerging economies but fears that they might presage a broader shift towards protectionism... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big a deal are the US tariffs? Steel and aluminium account for about 2% of world trade, so the direct impact on the global economy of the tariffs President Trump announced yesterday would be minimal. But the fact that they are... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) Markit’s global manufacturing PMI once again held up close to a seven-year high in February, which sits well with our view that 2018 will be another strong year for global growth. 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Cabinet consensus won’t unlock negotiations The “Canada plus, plus, plus” deal, including single market participation for some sectors, which UK Cabinet ministers reportedly agreed to this week is unlikely to be accepted by the EU in its... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Could the Phillips Curve be L-shaped? Some economists have been considering whether, having been stubbornly low for years, wage inflation may take off as the world reaches full employment. This Update considers why this might occur. 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Feb.) Preliminary PMIs point to continued strong growth in advanced economies in February and are consistent with our view that the world economy will expand at a decent pace this year. 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update South Africa: First thoughts on Zuma’s resignation The resignation of embattled South African President Jacob Zuma last night has provided a boost to local markets. His successor inherits an economy that is already well into a cyclical upswing. Over... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions little affected by market sell-off The sell-off in financial markets, which was triggered by a reassessment of the outlook for US inflation and interest rates, has meant that government bond yields have jumped. But these recent moves... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is inflation about to take off? One explanation for the recent slump in equity and bond prices is that investors have become concerned that inflation is about to take off, forcing central bankers to tighten policy more rapidly than... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Transition period “not a given” This week saw negotiations resume for the first time since the EU Council agreed in December that talks could move on to a possible transition period. However, UK Government objections to some of the... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
