Global Economics Update Emerging markets not a major risk for the Fed or ECB Even if emerging market assets remain under pressure this year, we don’t expect the crises in Argentina and Turkey to be replicated in other emerging economies. Meanwhile, domestic conditions in the... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is Italy really set for a fiscal splurge? Developments over the past few weeks have made it more likely that Italy’s Government will implement some form of fiscal stimulus in next year’s Budget. This is likely to cause bond yields to rise... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we care about consumer confidence? Surveys of consumer confidence have been unusually strong in the past two years, but their usefulness as a guide to spending has deteriorated. What’s more, experience shows that both confidence and... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Credit has continued to expand steadily in most major advanced economies in recent months and is rising particularly strongly in the US. Meanwhile, the currency crisis in Turkey has so far had only a... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update First signs of tariff effects As expected, the first effects of tariffs introduced by the US and some of its key trade partners are quite small. The main risk to the world economy is from a much bigger escalation of the trade war... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big a worry is Turkey? The plunge in the lira which began in May now looks certain to push the Turkish economy into recession and it may well trigger a banking crisis. This would be another blow for EMs as an asset class... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big a worry is Turkey? The plunge in the lira which began in May now looks certain to push the Turkish economy into recession and it may well trigger a banking crisis. This would be another blow for EMs as an asset class... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A closer look at “bellwethers” of the global economy Some commonly-cited indicators suggest that the global economy has lost momentum recently. But a closer look indicates that most of these do not have a very good relationship with GDP growth. And... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US midterms 2018: What's at stake? The most likely outcome of the midterm elections is legislative gridlock, although a second round of tax cuts would be unlikely even if the Republicans narrowly maintain control of both Houses of... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we worry about the slump in copper prices? The slide in the price of copper in the past few weeks has added to concerns about the health of the world economy. But while it may provide further evidence that China’s economy is slowing, we do not... 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to softer Q3 The fall in Markit’s global manufacturing PMI in July supports our view that Q2 marked the peak in global growth. However, the slowdown now underway should be gradual for the next year or so. 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Strong growth in Q2 unlikely to last While global economic growth rebounded in Q2, it will probably slow again in the second half of this year and in 2019. The US will not be able to sustain annualised GDP growth of 4%, China’s economy... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much damage would a Brexit “no deal” cause? Although the more extreme warnings about the short-term impact of a “no-deal” Brexit on the economy are overdone, there is little doubt that it could deal a reasonable blow to GDP growth next year. 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Surveys softer at start of Q3, but still encouraging Preliminary PMIs for July fell but remain consistent with GDP expanding at a decent pace in advanced economies. The surveys also point to growing price pressures and slower world trade growth. 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Northern Ireland stalemate raises risk of no deal The UK Government’s Chequers proposals are still broadly intact following a tumultuous week in Parliament. The Prime Minister suggested that the proposals would also solve the Northern Ireland border... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Putting the EU’s surplus in a global context The EU’s and, particularly, Germany’s trade practices have been criticised heavily by President Trump, prompting him in early July to label the trade bloc “as bad as China”. However, from a global... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read