Global Economics Update Canada This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Canada’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Japan This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Japan’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing downturn starting to bottom out? It’s still far too early to say for sure, but March’s manufacturing PMIs offer some hope that the worst is over for the downturn in global manufacturing, at least outside the euro-zone. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Inverted yield curve another signal of weaker growth Some have warned that the recent inversion of the US yield curve signals that a recession is coming, while others have warned against reading too much into the inversion. Our view is that the answer... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Brexit Delay: What’s new and what’s not? The delay granted by the EU last night has pushed back Brexit by at least two weeks, from 29th March to 12th April, but four options remain on the table – deal, no deal, no Brexit or another delay. So... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing malaise shows no signs of abating March’s flash PMIs add to evidence that GDP growth was subdued in the three largest advanced economies in Q1, with Germany continuing to take the brunt of the global manufacturing slowdown. 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What does a Brexit delay mean for the UK economy? The length of any delay to Brexit beyond 29th March could have a fairly large bearing on the performance of the economy and the path taken by official interest rates. A delay of 12 months or more... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will emerging markets outperform in the long-run? The broad tailwinds that lifted growth across the emerging world over the past two decades won’t be repeated and, as a result, GDP growth will be around two percentage points weaker over the next... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Brexit mess still not a big threat to world economy The second defeat of Theresa May’s Brexit deal in the UK Parliament has increased the risks to the UK economy by prolonging uncertainty and leaving a no deal a possibility. But for the world as a... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What’s behind the global slowdown? In contrast to the crisis of 2008/09, the recent decline in world GDP growth appears to have been due to a combination of national factors rather than a single global shock. While the slowdown has... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Initial thoughts on China's National People’s Congress The key takeaway from today’s policy announcements at the opening of the National People’s Congress in China is that the leadership are still trying to balance efforts to support growth with concerns... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further FDI reform in India likely if Modi wins election Recent moves to tighten restrictions on foreign e-commerce firms are more a reflection of the Indian government wanting to boost popular support ahead of the general election than a fundamental shift... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US/China deal is limited comfort for global economy We do not expect the trade deal that is taking shape between the US and China to transform the outlook for the world economy, not least because we always argued that the adverse effects of new and... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big is the threat to central bank independence? Central bank independence seems to be increasingly under attack, raising fears that the success of central banks in anchoring inflation and inflation expectations in recent years could be reversed. We... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Industrial downturn deepens February’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that the industrial downturn in advanced economies has worsened. Even the US is showing signs of succumbing to the widespread deterioration in industrial output. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Inventories data also hint at a slowdown A look at recent figures on stockbuilding and inventories provide another reason to think that the economic cycle has turned downwards. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
