Global Economics Update No end in sight for Italian fiscal stand-off The Italian Government’s reply to the European Commission suggests that there is unlikely to be a quick resolution to the current fiscal impasse. We expect yields to rise in the coming years. 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Other countries unlikely to echo the US fiscal stimulus The apparent success of the US’s recent fiscal stimulus, at least in the short term, begs the question of whether other countries should, or will, follow suit. However, we think that most would... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global fallout from a no deal Brexit would be modest While a disorderly no deal Brexit might, depending on its nature, deliver a significant short-term blow to the UK economy and financial markets, any global fallout would probably be small. 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global fallout from a no deal Brexit would be modest While a disorderly no deal Brexit might, depending on its nature, deliver a significant short-term blow to the UK economy and financial markets, any global fallout would probably be small. 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the Phillips Curve back from the dead? After years of falling unemployment, wage growth has finally been picking up in the major advanced economies this year. However, the forces that have kept a lid on pay growth over the past decade are... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will a trade war sink the global economy? It would require a significant escalation from the measures seen so far for a trade war to be the trigger of the next global downturn. The bigger risks at this stage are that lower-level skirmishes... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World trade likely to slow, but not collapse After slowing sharply since the start of the year, we think that trade growth will lose further momentum in the coming months. But we doubt that there will be anything worse than a modest slowdown. 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four points on the IMF’s latest projections We broadly agree with the IMF’s latest growth projections for the world economy for next year, but we still think its forecasts are too optimistic for the US and too downbeat for the UK. And in... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Bolsonaro boost to hit political realities The strong showing for Jair Bolsonaro and his party in yesterday’s general election in Brazil has increased the chances of pro-market reform. This is likely to prompt an initial rally in local markets... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How would the UK economy handle a no deal Brexit? The impact of a no deal Brexit on the economy would depend on what sort of no deal it was, but there would be at least some negative effect in the short term. If the UK left the EU on bad terms, the... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we fear oil at $100pb? While we expect oil prices to fall back from their four-year high, a continued rise to $100pb would not deal a big blow to global growth. But it would exacerbate current account pressures in some EMs. 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Another look at the threat from quantitative tightening A year after the Fed began shrinking its balance sheet, global central banks’ net asset purchases have slowed sharply, and they are set to turn negative in January. However, we doubt that this will... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update USMCA trade deal shows Trump can be tamed The new trade deal agreed with Canada and Mexico won’t in itself have much impact on the US economy. Along with the deal recently agreed with South Korea, however, it provides another example of... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Surveys weaken at the end of Q3 The fall in Markit’s global manufacturing PMI in September supports our view that global growth peaked in Q2. We think growth will slow further over the next two years as the US and China lose... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The bumpy road to Brexit: a primer There are now only six months left to negotiate the deal under which the UK will leave the EU and move into a transition period. This Update lays out five key questions and answers on what still needs... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs stable at the end of Q3 Preliminary PMIs suggest that GDP was expanding at a steady pace in advanced economies in September. The euro-zone has not recovered from a weak first half of the year, and the US has continued to do... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
