Global economic growth will slow to its weakest pace since the financial crisis over the next eighteen months. Previous policy tightening has yet to take its full toll on activity in the United States, China’s stimulus seems too modest to prompt a strong rebound in growth and trade tensions between these two economies seem likely to escalate. The disappointing economic performance will leave inflation low and cause monetary policy to be loosened almost across the board. But we do not see this prompting any meaningful recovery until 2021.
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