Global Economics Update What’s behind the global slowdown? In contrast to the crisis of 2008/09, the recent decline in world GDP growth appears to have been due to a combination of national factors rather than a single global shock. While the slowdown has... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Initial thoughts on China's National People’s Congress The key takeaway from today’s policy announcements at the opening of the National People’s Congress in China is that the leadership are still trying to balance efforts to support growth with concerns... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further FDI reform in India likely if Modi wins election Recent moves to tighten restrictions on foreign e-commerce firms are more a reflection of the Indian government wanting to boost popular support ahead of the general election than a fundamental shift... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US/China deal is limited comfort for global economy We do not expect the trade deal that is taking shape between the US and China to transform the outlook for the world economy, not least because we always argued that the adverse effects of new and... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big is the threat to central bank independence? Central bank independence seems to be increasingly under attack, raising fears that the success of central banks in anchoring inflation and inflation expectations in recent years could be reversed. We... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Industrial downturn deepens February’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that the industrial downturn in advanced economies has worsened. Even the US is showing signs of succumbing to the widespread deterioration in industrial output. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Inventories data also hint at a slowdown A look at recent figures on stockbuilding and inventories provide another reason to think that the economic cycle has turned downwards. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The knowns and the unknowns of Brexit This Update cuts through the Brexit quagmire by highlighting four things we now know about Brexit, four things we don’t, and four implications for the economy and the financial markets. 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Euro-zone economies most exposed to global downturns Since major euro-zone economies are more globalised than most, they are more sensitive to turns in the global business cycle. This partly explains why, having outperformed in 2017, they have... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are EMs prepared for another downturn? The economic cycle in most EMs has passed its peak and a combination of domestic headwinds and a slowdown in the global economy means growth will be weaker than most expect across the emerging world... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing sector has lost more momentum in Q1 February’s flash PMIs show that the manufacturing downturn has deepened throughout advanced economies. The one comfort is that the surveys reported a pick-up in services sector activity. 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trade tensions not to blame for slowing world exports We think that tariffs imposed in the past year can account for only a small part of the slowdown in global trade growth over the same period. The threat of future tariffs might also have hit trade... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trade tensions not to blame for slowing world exports We think that tariffs imposed in the past year can account for only a small part of the slowdown in global trade growth over the same period. The threat of future tariffs might also have hit trade... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Euro-zone/US divergence to narrow as US slows The recent contrast between a weakening euro-zone and resilient US seems to reflect the former’s higher exposure to world trade and the relative weakness of real disposable incomes growth there. We... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update EM slowdown to be broad-based The slowdown in growth in the emerging world this year is likely to be unusually broad-based. That will set a downbeat mood for EM assets over the course of this year. 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Capital Economics Financial Conditions Indices We expect financial conditions to tighten further this year in major advanced economies reflecting, but also exacerbating, slower economic growth. To monitor levels of stress in the financial system... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
