Given the uncertainty about how the coronavirus will evolve, and how governments will respond, it is easy to envisage ways in which the hit to global GDP will be larger than the 1%-pt we have now built into our forecasts. However, in these more pessimistic scenarios the virus is more likely to trigger a “run of the mill” recession than another full-blown financial crisis.
Subscriber content
Read this in full, free
Start a free trial and use one of your 10 free starter credits to unlock this piece.