Europe Economics Weekly ECB to follow words with actions before long Although President Draghi adopted a softer tone at last week’s interest rate press conference, the ECB decided to once again keep its powder dry. However, given the weak recovery and subdued inflation... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Lacklustre Q1 growth to keep the pressure on the ECB Survey data for March provided an insight into how the euro-zone fared over Q1. While they suggested that the recovery probably gained a little momentum in the first quarter, they remain consistent... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Rebalancing to weigh on euro-zone inflation further Recent data show that the euro-zone labour market is finally starting to strengthen and that labour costs are falling in the periphery relative to the core. But, while some economies are adjusting... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Industrial malaise could soon start to ease Although January’s euro-zone industrial figures made disappointing reading, the recent weakness of the sector partly reflects a plunge in energy production. Encouragingly, orders data paint a more... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slack & euro could yet force the ECB's hand While last week’s decision by the ECB to leave policy on hold may be a signal that the euro-zone’s long monetary policy loosening cycle is finally over, the combination of the greater emphasis on the... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stars still aligned for more ECB support Despite last week's stronger than expected euro-zone inflation figures, the combination of still very weak price pressures, the strong euro and recent falls in liquidity in the banking sector still... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slow euro-zone recovery leaves deflation threat lurking The euro-zone’s recovery appears to have continued at the beginning of 2014. But the recovery is struggling to gather enough pace to banish the deflationary menace facing the region. 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP figures don't preclude the need for ECB action Q4’s euro-zone GDP figures confirmed that the currency union’s economic situation improved marginally at the end of last year, but the ECB will need to take further action to ensure that the recovery... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The ECB is too sanguine about monetary problems The euro-zone’s difficult monetary conditions will add to the disinflationary pressures in the region. Admittedly, Mario Draghi suggested last week that temporary factors such as the AQR were... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly How will market volatility threaten the euro-zone? We doubt that the recent financial market sell-off in parts of the emerging world will be a catalyst for a renewed intensification of the euro-zone crisis. But the events underline the potential... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Housing rebound to provide some support to recovery Data released over the last week point to a brightening outlook for euro-zone households, not least because the region’s housing market downturn may be easing. But given the state of households’... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is industry defying the strong euro? Not only did November's industrial production figures indicate that euro-zone GDP may have risen more strongly in Q4 than in Q3, but they also suggested that the euro's strength is not overwhelming... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is QE finally on the way? Last week’s assertions from Mario Draghi that the ECB stands ready to use all instruments allowed by the EU Treaty looked like a hint that it is finally considering engaging in quantitative easing... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The pitfalls in the euro-zone’s road to recovery Although our forecast for euro-zone GDP growth in 2014 of 0.5% is now only a little more downbeat than the consensus estimate, there remain plenty of risks that could yet derail the region's recovery... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Disaster averted for another year, but crisis unresolved Our fears that the euro-zone crisis would re-escalate in 2013 proved to be unfounded, thanks in part to the continued calming influence of the ECB’s OMT backstop. But the region’s fundamental problems... 23rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Banking Union progress offers little near-term relief Last week, euro-zone policy-makers moved closer to an agreement on the Single Resolution Mechanism responsible for handling failed banks. But while this is certainly a positive step, it will leave the... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
