Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB being complacent about deflation? For now at least, the ECB appears happy to leave its “powerful artillery” in the arsenal due to its fairly sanguine outlook for inflation. But rather than start to rise gently in line with the ECB’s... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Rating changes don't confirm convergence Last week’s rating changes by S&P, which stripped the Netherlands of its triple A status and moved Spain from negative watch to stable, appeared to re-affirm the recent message from the economic data... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly External sector won’t drive the recovery September’s euro-zone trade data and November’s PMI surveys, both released last week, gave mixed signals on how the euro-zone’s external sector is developing. Whilst the survey data suggested that... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Signs of growth convergence provide little comfort Q3's meagre rise in euro-zone GDP clearly was disappointing, but there were some signs that growth within the region is converging. The slowdown was largely down to weaker growth in Germany and France... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB rate cut to provide only a little boost The ECB’s unexpected interest rate cut last week was certainly a pleasant surprise and suggests that it is not writing off the potential threat of deflation. But there was little in the press... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Credit constraints still a problem despite signs of easing The ECB’s Bank Lending Survey (BLS), published last week, suggested that credit constraints might soon start to ease in the euro-zone. But this improvement is only tentative; the fragility of the... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone still on track for a grinding recovery Although the Bank of Spain’s Q3 GDP estimate suggested that Spain may have exited its two-year recession, the fall in the euro-zone composite PMI in October highlighted that the region’s economic... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro strength threatens recovery prospects Euro-zone policymakers took another step along the path towards banking union last week, while the resolution of the US shutdown debacle appeared to remove an external threat to the region’s fragile... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly US shutdown underlines uncertain global backdrop The US federal government shutdown is unlikely to have major direct effects on the European economy and financial markets provided that it is resolved fairly quickly. Nonetheless, the episode has... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Peripheral labour markets are healing, but very slowly Evidence mounted last week that euro-zone unemployment has peaked. Particularly encouragingly, many of the peripheral economies have now enjoyed several months of falling unemployment. What’s more... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Surveys point to positive, but modest, growth in Q3 Last week’s surprise (to most people) decision by the US Federal Reserve not to “taper” its asset purchases has some near-term benefits for the euro-zone. But it does not eliminate the longer-term... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fed inaction brings the ECB respite, for now Last week’s surprise (to most people) decision by the US Federal Reserve not to “taper” its asset purchases has some near-term benefits for the euro-zone. But it does not eliminate the longer-term... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Data dent hopes of French renaissance July’s French industrial production data were a blow to hopes that the economy is staging a longawaited recovery. With business surveys at low levels, consumer confidence weak, unemployment rising and... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is Spain staging an export-led recovery? Last week’s data from Spain were pretty encouraging – in particular, the PMI export orders index for August suggested that Spain’s robust export recovery continued in Q3. But other data indicate that... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Households back on their feet, but not yet ready to run Data released last week point to a brightening near-term outlook for euro-zone households, suggesting that consumption growth will gather pace in Q3. But given that a meaningful recovery in the labour... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany to fund more than a third Greek bail-out? German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble’s acknowledgement last week that Greece needs more aid seemed like a statement of the obvious. Encouragingly, however the size of any new bail-out will be... 26th August 2013 · 1 min read
