Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jun.) The latest fiscal data revealed a mixed performance by the euro-zone’s peripheral countries, with Ireland faring particularly well. Meanwhile, Greece reached a deal with its creditors but, in the... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Bond yields rise on prospect of tighter global monetary policy Bond yields across the Nordic and Swiss economies increased in June, in line with global market moves following major central bank speeches that prompted investors to bring forward their expectations... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Gloomy French fiscal outlook leaves Macron with work to do The warning from France’s fiscal watchdog that the country’s budget deficit is set to exceed 3% of GDP this year and next puts pressure on Emmanuel Macron to find extra savings in order to avoid... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the euro continue to climb? We think that the euro’s latest rise against the US dollar was a justified reaction to Mario Draghi’s hints that QE will be tapered early next year, despite warnings from the ECB that the comments... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Is below-target inflation in Norway a problem? The Norges Bank’s latest projections suggest that it is unwilling, or unable, to loosen policy by enough to hit its inflation target. This will weigh on economic growth over the coming years, and... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) May’s euro-zone money and credit data point to continued steady economic growth. But problems in Italian banks have seen lending there continue to contract. 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian bank rescue raises long-term concerns While the state aid granted to two regional Italian lenders over the weekend has reduced the risks to the Italian economy in the near term, it shows that the so-called “doom loop” between the banking... 27th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Portugal continue to outperform Italy? Portugal’s economy has outperformed Italy’s in recent years as easing austerity, progress with labour reforms and improvements in competitiveness have all borne fruit. We expect this to continue. 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway rate cut off the table, but a long way from rate hikes The Norges Bank revised up its forecast for interest rates this year, so a cut now looks unlikely. But while the Bank expects to raise its policy rate in 2019, we think that it will be unchanged until... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Macron’s 7% unemployment rate achievable? While we think that President Macron’s labour reform plans will be broadly successful, his target for France’s unemployment rate to fall to 7% by 2022 still seems overly ambitious. With his planned... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Little scope for German spending boost from lower savings Structural factors have pushed the German household saving rate higher in recent years. So we doubt that a fall in the saving rate will see consumer spending growth gain much pace in the months ahead. 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Macron’s majority bodes well, but reform won’t be easy The results of the French parliamentary elections revealing that Emmanuel Macron’s La République En Marche has achieved a huge majority bode well for the French economy and for EU relations. But he... 19th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek crisis averted for another year The deal at yesterday’s Eurogroup meeting should see Greece receive the next tranche of its bailout soon, allowing it to meet July’s debt repayments with a little time and cash to spare. Debt relief... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Cautious SNB keeps policy unchanged The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold and pledge continued currency intervention if needed reflected the fact that inflation is still very low. With price pressures likely... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What does the UK election mean for the euro-zone? The UK election is unlikely to have major adverse near-term effects on the euro-zone as damage to UK demand from political uncertainty may be offset by looser fiscal policy. A softer Brexit could... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Scope for further interest rate cuts in Iceland There is little sign that the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) expects to reduce interest rates further after today’s cut, but we think there is scope for a further appreciation of the króna to weigh on... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
