Europe Economics Update Spanish growth to slow regardless of politics Spain’s political situation is fragile and we cannot rule out a snap election being called this year. But regardless of the politics, deteriorating economic fundamentals mean that economic growth will... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Inflation still set to dampen real spending growth this year The annual rate of euro-zone inflation may be nearing a peak, but its effects on consumer spending growth have yet to come. With nominal wage gains unlikely to offset higher prices, we still see... 20th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Inflation will undershoot Norges Bank target in coming years The Norges Bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged came despite a deterioration in the outlook for inflation. Policymakers remain concerned about the impact of loose monetary policy on the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB on hold, but fight against franc will need to continue The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold was as expected given the recent rise in inflation. But with euro-zone political developments likely to put upward pressure on the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch ado about nothing? The next Dutch government is likely to be a centre-right coalition with a broadly similar stance towards the EU as before and a slightly looser fiscal policy. But the balance of power in the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the Dutch election a litmus test for the rest of Europe? We suspect that a better-than-expected result for eurosceptic and populist parties in today’s Dutch general election would have little direct effect on support for eurosceptic parties elsewhere. 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic interest rates still set to be cut later this year The Central Bank of Iceland’s decision to keep policy unchanged after the lifting of capital controls was unsurprising. The recent drop in the króna reduces the need for the CBI to cut interest rates... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are things finally looking up for Portugal? Portugal’s anti-austerity Government has continued to implement economic reforms and cut its budget deficit, which reduces the risk of sanctions from the EU. But major challenges still lie ahead. 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb.) After rising to a five-year high in February, Swedish headline inflation is set to ease back in the coming months as energy inflation cools. But with signs that underlying price pressures are rising... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic króna to rise despite lifting of capital controls The Icelandic króna has fallen after the final step in the lifting of capital controls. But with tourism set to grow strongly, we suspect that the króna will rise and put downward pressure on import... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch election likely to result in small fiscal boost The PVV’s declining support suggests that is now even less likely to govern after the Dutch election. But the eventual governing parties will still respond to the populists by loosening fiscal policy. 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB committed to loose policy despite healthy growth The ECB today reiterated its commitment to buying assets throughout this year and keeping interest rates at current or lower levels for an extended period. While the Bank believes that downside risks... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we believe the upbeat French business surveys? The positive message from France’s business surveys suggests that economic growth will accelerate sharply in the coming months. But they probably overstated growth again in Q1, while political fears... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Euro-zone political risk to boost Nordic & Swiss currencies This month see the first of a number of key elections in the euro-zone this year. Investors are likely to become increasingly worried about the potential for anti-euro parties to enter government and... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.) The European Commission recently released new forecasts agreeing with our view that the peripheral economies will miss their fiscal deficit targets again this year. While bond yields dropped back in... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Next French President won’t enjoy carte blanche None of the three frontrunners in this spring’s French presidential election looks likely to be able to depend on majority support in Parliament should they be elected. This will weaken their capacity... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
