Europe Economics Update German investment set for strong growth Despite little prospect of a pick-up in public investment in Germany following Sunday’s federal election, conditions are ripe for sharp rises in both general business investment and construction... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the fall in Portuguese bond yields be sustained? Portugal’s economic recovery is strengthening, while it has also made progress with recapitalising its banks and strengthening its fiscal position. This is reflected in the decline in government bond... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How will the ECB taper affect corporate bond yields? We think that corporate bond yields will rise only gradually as the ECB tapers its asset purchases next year. After all, the economy looks set to continue performing well. And the Bank is likely to... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB language tweaks don’t signal policy shift The Swiss National Bank today acknowledged the depreciation of the franc over recent months but stressed that it was still necessary to keep interest rates at rock-bottom levels and maintain the... 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What would be a dovish ECB taper? Given upward pressure on the single currency, we now see the ECB tapering its asset purchases over nine months instead of six next year. We still expect it to announce the full programme in advance... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Huge costs make Catalan independence unlikely A unilateral declaration of independence after October’s referendum could severely destabilise the economies of Catalonia and Spain. But given this, and the political and legal barriers to secession... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi confirms taper decision to come in October Despite reiterating the Governing Council’s concern about the strength of the euro exchange rate today, ECB President Draghi indicated that the Bank’s plan to taper asset purchases will be unveiled at... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank’s forward guidance unchanged despite high inflation While inflation in Sweden is higher than the Riksbank’s 2% target, the Bank’s decision to keep its forward guidance unchanged was not a major shock. The Riksbank is unlikely to shift its guidance... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Italy no longer a risk? Italy’s eurosceptic parties have recently eased up on their most anti-euro rhetoric, but it is far too early to sound the all clear. With the banking sector weak, public debt very high and the economy... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What will Norway’s election mean for the economy? Polls suggest that the Green Party might emerge from Norway’s general election, on 11th September, as “kingmaker”. In that case, confidence in the large oil sector would probably fall. But overall, we... 4th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Aug.) Euro-zone peripheral economies largely continued to improve their budget positions in July, with Ireland once again making the most progress. Portugal too is faring reasonably well. But Greece’s and... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Nordic and Swiss bond yields decline Bond yields in most Nordic and Swiss markets fell in August, matching global trends. Currencies recorded mixed performances against the euro, with the Swiss franc depreciating while the Swedish krona... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) July’s euro-zone money and credit data are consistent with limited inflationary pressure in the region. Coupled with the renewed rise in the euro to above $1.20, this strengthens the case for the ECB... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland nearing the end of its loosening cycle While the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) left rates unchanged today, our expectation that the króna will appreciate in the coming months means we expect one more rate cut this year, in November. 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Has Swedish inflation actually picked up? In recent months Swedish inflation has been artificially boosted by a new method for calculating package holiday prices. While the Riksbank will look through this particular effect, it is nevertheless... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Hard work begins for Macron as 100-day honeymoon ends After 100 days in office, French President Emmanuel Macron has already begun to reform the labour market. But a decline in his approval rating and a darker fiscal outlook will make it difficult for... 21st August 2017 · 1 min read
