Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s inflation surprise, Russia & OPEC+ The surprisingly large rise in Hungarian inflation in June to its highest rate in almost nine years suggests that the risks to our interest rate forecast are skewed to the upside. Elsewhere, the... 9th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey dollarisation, Ukraine-IMF, Russia & Poland rates Turkey’s central bank took steps this week to tackle deposit dollarisation in the banking sector, although these efforts will fail to make headway in the absence of a stronger commitment to rein in... 2nd July 2021 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s quick turnaround, Russia’s latest intervention The sharp improvement in Turkey’s virus situation has brightened the near-term outlook and presents a risk to our view that the central bank will start an aggressive easing cycle in the coming months... 25th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Moscow’s virus surge, MNB and CNB ready for lift-off A surge in virus infections and tightening of containment measures in Moscow this week, coming alongside very low vaccine coverage, threatens to weigh on activity and derail Russia's economic recovery... 18th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ruble gains, Hungary policy rift, stronger CEE currencies The Russian ruble appreciated to its strongest level against the dollar since last July this week and the balance of forces now increasingly favours further gains, but a lot depends on geopolitics and... 11th June 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Erdogan piles on the pressure, Israel’s surprise coalition Talk this week of rate cuts in Turkey has led to further falls in the lira and, ironically, means that the central bank will stand pat at this month's MPC meeting. In Israel, the coalition proposal... 4th June 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira touches new low, CEE bond yield divergence It's been a rocky week for the Turkish lira amid more changes at the central bank and political upheaval regarding a possible link between politicians and organised crime. This, coming alongside high... 28th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s policy shift, Turkey’s tight fiscal stance Guidance from Hungary's central bank this week suggests that it is taking the fight against inflation much more seriously and we now think that a monetary tightening cycle will start over the coming... 21st May 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel-Gaza conflict, CEE inflation spike The experience of the conflict between Israel and Hamas in 2014 suggests that the economic impact of the current conflict may be limited and temporary. So long as it ends soon, we still expect a... 14th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s recovery plan, hawkish central banks in CEE Poland submitted its recovery and resilience plan to the European Commission over the past week and, while the plan to boost long-term growth looks ambitious, it should make a major contribution... 7th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey heading into lockdown as CEE starts to re-open The imposition of a national lockdown in Turkey this week adds to the headwinds facing the recovery and means that the risks to our GDP growth forecast for this year are skewed to the downside. In... 30th April 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin’s fiscal gift, lira fall, Polish inflation, Israel launch President Putin’s state of the nation address this week outlined more social welfare measures ahead of elections in September, but the implications for growth and inflation will be limited. Meanwhile... 23rd April 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Virus outbreaks diverge, Russian sanctions, CBRT hold Third waves of COVID-19 in Central Europe seem to have peaked and authorities are moving to ease restrictions on activity, which should support recoveries. But Turkey’s outbreak has gone from bad to... 16th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Conflict in the Donbass, Turkey’s FX reserve problem The flare up in military tensions between Russia and Ukraine this week poses a major threat to political stability in the region and could exacerbate some existing macro vulnerabilities in both... 9th April 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Rare zloty weakness, Erdogan’s extended purge The Polish zloty touched its weakest level against the euro this week since 2009 but we don’t expect the currency to lose any more ground from here. Meanwhile, Turkey’s President Erdogan took further... 1st April 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE’s delayed recovery, cautious CNB, Turkey turmoil The rise in virus infections, extension of containment measures and slow pace of vaccination mean that we are revising down our GDP forecasts in Central Europe this year. Meanwhile, the fallout from... 26th March 2021 · 6 mins read
