Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech GDP, Turkish inflation and lira, Russian ruble Czech Q2 GDP figures released on Friday support our view that Central Europe will recover more quickly from the coronavirus crisis than most other EM regions. Elsewhere, the Turkish central bank’s... 31st July 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly EU funds & CEE, Turkey sanctions, Russian oil hedging This week’s agreement on the EU budget is generally a positive outcome for Central and Eastern Europe, with fund allocations rising and Poland and Hungary rejoicing at the lack of a framework linking... 24th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s national projects, NBU governor, ERM II The postponement of President Putin’s flagship National Projects initiative seems to pave the way for the Prime Minister’s economic recovery plan to take centre stage over the coming years, but it... 17th July 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Activity rebounds strongly in Central Europe The rebound in retail sales and industrial production across Central and Eastern Europe in May as lockdown measures were lifted supports our view that the region will experience a relatively strong... 10th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine in the spotlight, Russia’s sanctions threat The resignation of Ukraine’s central bank governor, Yakiv Smolii, this week is unlikely to upend the country’s IMF deal, but failure to replace him with a credible candidate or backsliding on recent... 3rd July 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s referendum, Poland’s election, Turkey & MSCI Russia’s government has been pulling out the stops to increase turnout in the vote on constitutional amendments to allow President Putin to rule until 2036, but details on the government’s medium-term... 26th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NBP eyes weaker zloty, Erdogan tightens economic grip Comments from Poland’s central bank this week highlighting the risk that a stronger currency would hold back the economic recovery suggests that policymakers view the exchange rate as a tool that has... 19th June 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Long-term scarring, auto production, CEE inflation Recent labour market developments offer early signs that employment protection schemes in place in Central Europe have contained the hit to the labour market. This should allow activity to recover... 12th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s fiscal package, Ukrainians leaving Poland The three-step stimulus plan unveiled this week by Russia’s government comes late in the day. But it does suggest that policymakers are serious about the shift towards permanently looser fiscal policy... 5th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Nagy resigns, EU recovery package, activity data The resignation of one of the Hungarian central bank’s key personnel this week may lead to a simplification of the monetary policy framework but is unlikely to alter the institution’s dovish bias... 29th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s temporary reprieve, EU budget proposals Financial support for Turkey unveiled by Qatar and Japan this week reduce the immediate threat of another currency crisis. But the funds being provided pale into comparison with Turkey’s external... 22nd May 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s external hit, Karlsruhe ruling, Russia’s lockdown Strains in Turkey’s balance of payments persist and recent developments have done little to alter our view that the risk of another currency crisis is rising. Meanwhile, a ruling last week by the... 15th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin in peril, CEE Q1 GDP The failure of the Russian authorities to contain the coronavirus outbreak and the lack of urgency with which policymakers have stepped up fiscal support has made us increasingly concerned about a... 7th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Storm brewing in Turkey, Czech easing restrictions The coronavirus is having a significant impact on Turkey’s balance of payments and, while the lira broke through 7/$ today, efforts to defend the currency are far from over. This risks a much larger... 1st May 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Futile lira defence, CEE bond purchases Turkish policymakers’ efforts to prevent the lira from slipping through 7/$ will prove futile and, with the chances of an IMF deal slim, the government has turned to import compression to counter... 24th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish markets under pressure, but resilient elsewhere The Turkish lira has been the ugly duckling of EM currencies this month as fears grow over the country’s coronavirus outbreak and poor external position. Turkish banks’ short-term external debts are... 17th April 2020 · 7 mins read
