Emerging Europe Economics Weekly EU budget problems, CBRT delivers tightening The decisions by Poland and Hungary this week to veto the EU budget and recovery fund brought to a head a conflict about the rule of law that threatens to suspend EU funds. There's a lot at stake... 20th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Vaccine hopes, Czech outbreak easing, Turkey’s policy shift? With most of Emerging Europe struggling to contain virus outbreaks and with the number of deaths still on the rise, news of a potential vaccine breakthrough this week is hugely encouraging. While... 13th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly US election risks, region braces for another lockdown Joe Biden’s chances of securing the US presidency are rising and it looks like there will be a divided government in the Senate. The ruble has appreciated since the election, but the risk of tighter... 6th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira sell-off adds pressure on the CBRT, protests in Poland Last week's decision by Turkey's central bank to tweak the interest rate 'corridor' has come back to bite hard with the lira falling sharply this week. This has raised talk that policymakers may be... 30th October 2020 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s recovery stalls, region headed for a downturn in Q4 Russia’s economy lost steam at the end of Q3 amid a contraction in consumer spending and the next stage of the recovery will be harder given the hit to incomes, weak investment and tight fiscal policy... 23rd October 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech COVID-19 surge, Turkey’s current account problems The Czech government this week announced a further tightening of containment measures in an effort to control the surge in COVID-19 cases which will cause economic activity to continue to soften. In... 16th October 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Recovery struggling in Central Europe, growing risks ahead The disappointing batch of August activity data for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that the initial rebound caused by the release of pent-up demand is petering out. The recent escalation of... 9th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Geopolitical tensions in Turkey, tighter restrictions in CEE The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has opened up another schism between Turkey, the EU and Russia and there is a major risk that an escalation of tensions could trigger sharp falls in the lira and push... 2nd October 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Tightening in Hungary and Turkey, Poland’s ‘fur crisis’ Concerns about currency falls and the inflation outlook prompted central banks in Hungary and Turkey to raise interest rates this week but while we think this will ultimately be reversed in Hungary... 25th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish lira, Russia’s vaccine, virus cases in Hungary The pressure on the Turkish lira this week as the risk of EU sanctions continued to rise has prompted a further tightening of monetary conditions, but an outright hike to policy rates at next week’s... 18th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s resilient GDP, virus cases grabbing headlines The breakdown of Russian Q2 GDP released this week showed that the economy's sectoral structure helped to cushion the fall in output from the pandemic. More recently, there have been encouraging signs... 11th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian ruble under pressure, Central Europe recovery The ratcheting up in geopolitical tensions in Russia this week amid concerns about the use of a chemical nerve agent is a warning sign for the ruble and further falls in the currency are likely to lie... 4th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fragile EU-Turkey relations, MNB in a bind The Turkish central bank's tightening of monetary conditions has helped to stabilise the lira but the further ratcheting up of tensions with the EU and threat of measures beyond sanctions mean that... 28th August 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s gas discovery & budget deficit, crisis in Belarus Turkey's discovery of gas in the Black Sea will provide some boost to the country's balance of payments, but its might be quickly eroded if the authorities use this as an opportunity to loosen policy... 21st August 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira intervention, Russia’s vaccine, CEE inflation Turkey's central bank has acted swiftly to tighten monetary conditions to shore up the lira and they would continue on this path if strains in the balance of payments were to flare up again. Meanwhile... 14th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira sell-off adds pressure on the CBRT to respond The sharp fall in the Turkish lira this week appears to be pushing policymakers towards monetary tightening, but we're not convinced that they will placate financial markets. In the past, it has... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
