Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: net migration outflows to slow sharply this decade Economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have experienced large and persistent net migration outflows in recent decades, but the tide has shifted in the past five years or so as outflows have... 7th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: net migration outflows to slow sharply this decade Economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have experienced large and persistent net migration outflows in recent decades, but the tide has shifted in the past five years or so as outflows have... 7th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s judicial reforms present key downside risks The Israeli government’s decision to press ahead with its controversial judicial reforms won’t necessarily cause foreign investment into Israel to dry up, but the direction of policymaking threatens... 25th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: rates on hold, but one more hike likely The Bank of Israel (BoI) kept its policy rate on hold at 4.75% today, but its communications acknowledged the risk of having to hike rates again in the coming months if inflation data warrant it. We... 10th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: labour market conditions likely to remain tight Labour markets across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have remained tight over the past year despite the weakness in economic activity and we think this will remain the case as recoveries gather pace... 6th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s rebellion: bigger war, lower macro stability? The armed uprising by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenary group against the Russian military over the weekend has dealt a heavy blow to President Putin and exposed cracks in the regime. There are a... 26th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT underwhelms with hike, but policy shift on track The 650bp interest rate hike by Turkey’s central bank today (to 15.0%) will underwhelm investors that wanted a faster and more aggressive monetary tightening. The currency has come under a bit of... 22nd June 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of policy shifts in Turkey and Nigeria Governments in Turkey and Nigeria have started to turn away from unorthodox economic policies in recent weeks, and in both cases currencies have been allowed to move closer to fair value. The key... 21st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s government spending spree looks unsustainable The Polish government’s ambitious plans to raise defence and social spending are unlikely to be achieved without pushing up the public debt-to-GDP ratio later this decade. Imminent risks to the... 13th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey needs a significant adjustment in the lira Signs that newly re-elected Turkish president Erdogan is willing to move away from unorthodox economic policies has led to an increase in investor optimism towards his country. These developments are... 7th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s U-turn: action will speak louder than words Optimism about a shift towards more orthodox economic policymaking in Turkey has taken hold following the appointment of Mehmet Simsek to the cabinet this weekend. Recent developments look encouraging... 5th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: just how likely is a sovereign debt default? The re-election of President Erdogan has raised concerns about a possible sovereign default. We think this risk looks low for now, but it would become a bigger threat in the coming years if the... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Crisis risks loom for Turkey’s financial markets President Erdogan looks set to secure victory in the second round of Turkey’s presidential election on 28th May. This Update sets out how we think this would play out in Turkey’s financial markets... 25th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB kicks off its monetary easing cycle Hungary’s central bank (MNB) cut the interest rate on its one-day deposit tender at today’s meeting, from 18% to 17%, and this is likely to be followed by further cuts in the coming months, with the... 23rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: 25bp hike, but tightening cycle not yet over The Bank of Israel (BoI) delivered another 25bp interest rate hike, to 4.75%, at today’s meeting and did not offer any guidance as to whether this would be the last in the cycle. On balance, we think... 22nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Takeaways from our EM roundtables Over the past couple of weeks we have held a series of roundtable discussions with clients across Asia and North America on the outlook for EMs. In this Update we provide our thoughts on the recurring... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
