India Economics Update

What Sino-Indian relations tell us about global fracturing

Signs of a thaw in frosty relations between India and China don’t point to a fundamental realignment in India’s position in a fracturing global economy. But they highlight a growing theme of some EMs...

13th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

US recession concerns, the market sell-off and EMs

Fears of a US recession have rattled EM equity markets at a time when EM economies themselves are showing more pronounced signs of weakness. Most EM currencies have held up well, suggesting a dovish...

5th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

The macro impact of an Israel-Hezbollah conflict

The rocket strike on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend has heightened fears of a full-blown conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. For Israel, this risks adding to...

29th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

CEE inflation data less encouraging than it seems

At first sight, the latest CPI data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) might seem to provide central banks reason for comfort. But a look under the surface paints a more worrying picture...

10th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Is Turkey losing external competitiveness?

Turkey’s economy has maintained strong external price competitiveness since the pandemic (mirrored by rapid export growth). But measures of competitiveness have shown a noticeable decline in the past...

9th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Ukraine: a close look at external financing and debt relief

The G7 loan to Ukraine announced last week and the narrowing window to approve a new debt relief package once the payment suspension with private creditors ends in August has shone the spotlight on...

20th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

EDP won’t heal CEE’s fiscal fragilities

The European Commission’s recommendation to open the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) against Poland, Hungary and Slovakia for breaching the EU’s fiscal rules won’t force a drastic change in...

19th June 2024 · 5 mins read

FX Markets Update

Zloty’s appreciation may come to a halt

Having lagged behind other emerging market (EM) currencies for most of the post-pandemic period, the Polish zloty has lead the pack over the past six months. While we think that most of this rally has...

3rd June 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Russia: bond sell-off intensifies as the war effort steps up

Sovereign bond yields in Russia have surged to multi-year highs this year as markets have increasingly questioned the trade-off between the war effort on the one hand and policymakers’ ability to...

29th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Croatia’s outperformance in Europe to continue

Croatia has established itself as one of the fastest growing economies in the EU and we think that it will maintain GDP growth of around 3% p.a. over 2024-26. Income convergence – which has been rapid...

23rd May 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Update

What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy

We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of...

15th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Turkey: fiscal tightening an important step forwards

The fiscal tightening steps announced by Turkey’s finance ministry today, which include a freeze on most public sector construction projects, will help to prevent the large budget deficit from...

13th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Israel: excess savings an upside growth and inflation risk

Private sector savings surged in Israel during the pandemic and jumped again last year amid the war in Gaza. We estimate that those built up due to the war are equivalent to around 3.0% of GDP and...

9th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Turkey's trade ban with Israel: assessing the impact

The decision by Turkey last week to suspend all goods trade with Israel until there is a permanent ceasefire in the war in Gaza is unlikely to have a major macroeconomic impact in either country...

7th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Answering your questions on the German economy

On Tuesday we held a Drop-in on the outlook for the German economy. This Update summarises the key points that we discussed and answers some of the questions that we received during the event.

2nd May 2024 · 7 mins read